Preterm Birth · Prediction
Owen J et al., 2001 · JAMA
Although shortened cervical length has been consistently associated with spontaneous preterm birth, it is not known when in gestation this risk factor becomes apparent. To determine whether sonographic cervical findings between 16 weeks' and 18 weeks 6 days' gestation predict spontaneous preterm birth and whether serial evaluations up to 23 weeks 6 days' gestation improve prediction in high-risk women. DESIGN, SETTING, Blinded observational study performed between March 1997 and November 1999 at 9 university-affiliated medical centers in the United States in 183 women with singleton gestations who previously had experienced a spontaneous birth before 32 weeks' gestation. Certified sonologists performed 590 endovaginal sonographic examinations at 2-week intervals. Cervical length was measured from the external os to the functional internal os along a closed endocervical canal. Funneling and dynamic cervical shortening were also recorded. Spontaneous preterm birth before 35 weeks' gestation, analyzed by selected cutoff values of cervical length. Forty-eight women (26%) experienced spontaneous preterm birth before 35 weeks' gestation. A cervical length of less than 25 mm at the initial sonographic examination was associated with a relative risk (RR) for spontaneous preterm birth of 3.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.1-5.0; sensitivity = 19%; specificity = 98%; positive predictive value = 75%). After controlling for cervical length, neither funneling (P =.24) nor dynamic shortening (P =.054) were significant independent predictors of spontaneous preterm birth. However, using the shortest ever observed cervical length on serial evaluations, after any dynamic shortening, the RR of a cervical length of less than 25 mm for spontaneous preterm birth increased to 4.5 (95% CI, 2.7-7.6; sensitivity = 69%; specificity = 80%; positive predictive value = 55%). Compared with a single cervical measurement at 16 weeks' to 18 weeks 6 days' gestation, serial measurements at up to 23 weeks 6 days significantly improved the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth in a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (P =.03). Cervical length assessed by endovaginal sonography between 16 weeks' and 18 weeks 6 days' gestation, augmented by serial evaluations, predicts spontaneous preterm birth before 35 weeks' gestation in high-risk women.
Preterm Birth · Prediction
Goldenberg RL et al., 1998 · Am J Public Health
This study was undertaken to determine the relationship between fetal fibronectin, short cervix, bacterial vaginosis, other traditional risk factors, and spontaneous preterm birth. From 1992 through 1994, 2929 women were screened at the gestational age 22 to 24 weeks. The odds ratios for spontaneous preterm birth were highest for fetal fibronectin, followed by a short cervix and history of preterm birth. These factors, as well as bacterial vaginosis, were more strongly associated with early than with late spontaneous preterm birth. Bacterial vaginosis was more common--and a stronger predictor of spontaneous preterm birth--in Black women, while body mass index less than 19.8 was a stronger predictor in non-Black women. This analysis suggests a pathway leading from Black race through bacterial vaginosis and fetal fibronectin to spontaneous preterm birth. Prior preterm birth is associated with spontaneous preterm birth through a short cervix. Fetal fibronectin and a short cervix are stronger predictors of spontaneous preterm birth than traditional risk factors. Bacterial vaginosis was found more often in Black than in non-Black women and accounted for 40% of the attributable risk for spontaneous preterm birth at less than 32 weeks.
Preterm Birth · Prediction
Goldenberg RL et al., 1996 · Obstet Gynecol
To evaluate the presence of fetal fibronectin in the cervix and vagina as a screening test for spontaneous preterm birth. Two thousand nine hundred twenty-nine women at ten centers were routinely screened every 2 weeks from 22-24 to 30 weeks for cervical and vaginal fetal fibronectin. A positive test was defined as a value equal to or greater than 50 ng/mL. The relation between a positive test at four gestational ages and spontaneous preterm birth at various intervals after the test was determined. In each testing period, 3-4% of the fetal fibronectin tests were positive. The correlation between cervical and vaginal fetal fibronectin at the same visit was always approximately 0.7 (P < .001), and that between cervical or vaginal fetal fibronectin in consecutive visits was between 0.17 and 0.25 (P < .001). The sensitivity of fetal fibronectin at 22-24 weeks to predict spontaneous preterm birth at less than 28 weeks was 0.63, and the relative risk for a positive versus negative test was 59. The specificity was always 96-98%, whereas the positive predictive value rose from 13% to 36% as the upper limit of the definition of preterm birth was increased from less than 28 to less than 37 weeks. The relative risk for spontaneous preterm birth after a positive fetal fibronectin test compared with a negative fetal fibronectin test varied substantially by testing period and by the definition of spontaneous preterm birth, but always remained greater than 4 and statistically significant. A positive cervical or vaginal fetal fibronectin test at 22-24 weeks predicted more than half of the spontaneous preterm births at less than 28 weeks (sensitivity 0.63). As the definition of spontaneous preterm birth was extended to include later gestational ages or when the fetal fibronectin test was performed later in pregnancy, the level of association between a positive fetal fibronectin test and spontaneous preterm birth, while remaining highly significant, tended to decrease. Although fetal fibronectin is an excellent test for predicting spontaneous preterm birth, we present no evidence that the use of this test will result in a reduction in spontaneous preterm birth.
Cervical Conditions · Cervical Insufficiency
Iams JD et al., 1996 · N Engl J Med
The role of the cervix in the pathogenesis of premature delivery is controversial. In a prospective, multicenter study of pregnant women, we used vaginal ultrasonography to measure the length of the cervix; we also documented the incidence of spontaneous delivery before 35 weeks' gestation. At 10 university-affiliated prenatal clinics, we performed vaginal ultrasonography at approximately 24 and 28 weeks of gestation in women with singleton pregnancies. We then assessed the relation between the length of the cervix and the risk of spontaneous preterm delivery. We examined 2915 women at approximately 24 weeks of gestation and 2531 of these women again at approximately 28 weeks. Spontaneous preterm delivery (at less than 35 weeks) occurred in 126 of the women (4.3 percent) examined at 24 weeks. The length of the cervix was normally distributed at 24 and 28 weeks (mean [+/- SD], 35.2 +/- 8.3 mm and 33.7 +/- 8.5 mm, respectively). The relative risk of preterm delivery increased as the length of the cervix decreased. When women with shorter cervixes at 24 weeks were compared with women with values above the 75th percentile, the relative risks of preterm delivery among the women with shorter cervixes were as follows: 1.98 for cervical lengths at or below the 75th percentile (40 mm), 2.35 for lengths at or below the 50th percentile (35 mm), 3.79 for lengths at or below the 25th percentile (30 mm), 6.19 for lengths at or below the 10th percentile (26 mm), 9.49 for lengths at or below the 5th percentile (22 mm), and 13.99 for lengths at or below the 1st percentile (13 mm) (P < 0.001 for values at or below the 50th percentile; P = 0.008 for values at or below the 75th percentile). For the lengths measured at 28 weeks, the corresponding relative risks were 2.80, 3.52, 5.39, 9.57, 13.88, and 24.94 (P < 0.001 for values at or below the 50th percentile; P = 0.003 for values at the 75th percentile). The risk of spontaneous preterm delivery is increased in women who are found to have a short cervix by vaginal ultrasonography during pregnancy.
