Cumulative pregnancy probabilities among couples with subfertility: effects of varying treatments

Definition of Infertility and Indications for Fertility Evaluation: Consensus Document

Minjeur M et al., 2026 · Journal of Restorative Reproductive Medicine · Free to read

Infertility is a clinical condition that is recognized by the symptom of an inability to conceive through sexual intercourse or to sustain a pregnancy, with that symptom indicating underlying male and/or female pathology. This definition of infertility was developed through a structured, consensus-informed process involving broad stakeholder engagement. Initially, multiple definitions currently used by various medical professional organizations were reviewed, and a definition document was drafted and submitted to the Board of Directors of the International Institute for Restorative Reproductive Medicine (IIRRM). All IIRRM members were invited to provide feedback on the draft. Approximately 2,500 individuals and 44 organizations from 92 countries were then invited to review the proposed document, representing clinical, scientific, patient, policy, and advocacy perspectives. Submitted comments were reviewed thematically, with suggested revisions evaluated for clarity, clinical relevance, inclusiveness, and consistency with contemporary restorative reproductive medicine. Following this review, 3 substantive changes, 18 minor changes, and 15 citation corrections were incorporated into the final draft which resulted in a revised definition intended to better reflect the medical, social, and practical realities of modern infertility evaluation and care. Final approval by the IIRRM Board of Directors was unanimous.

Subfecundity, Infertility Treatment, and Child Neurodevelopment

Kahn LG et al., 2026 · JAMA Network Open · Free full text on PubMed Central

Increasing numbers of children are conceived using infertility treatment; concerns remain about potential effects on child neurodevelopment. To evaluate whether infertility treatment is associated with child neurodevelopment and whether such an association may be attributable to underlying subfecundity. DESIGN, SETTING, This cohort study was conducted among mother-child dyads in the National Institutes of Health Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) Cohort, with infants conceived between 1998 and 2022. Associations of subfecundity and infertility treatment with neurodevelopmental outcomes were assessed among children ages 2 to 10 years. Data were analyzed from May 14, 2025, to March 31, 2026. Subfecundity was defined as prior consultation for, treatment of, or diagnosis of infertility for either partner; at least 2 prior miscarriages; or ever having had unprotected heterosexual intercourse for 12 months without conceiving. Infertility treatment was categorized as in vitro fertilization (IVF) or non-IVF treatment. Harmonized caregiver responses to the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire and the Child Behavior Checklist yielded continuous raw scores for externalizing and internalizing problems. The total raw Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS) score quantified autism-like symptoms. Caregivers reported physician diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Among 15 382 mother-infant dyads, there were 14 191 unique maternal participants (mean [SD] age at delivery, 30.9 [5.33] years; 8780 parous participants [57.1%]). ASD and ADHD were diagnosed in 876 offspring (7.6%) and 819 offspring (7.1%), respectively. In generalized linear models, subfecundity was associated with higher externalizing problem and SRS scores among all pregnancies (externalizing problems: b = 0.47 [95% CI, 0.14-0.81]; SRS score: b = 1.08 [95% CI, 0.01-2.14]) and when restricted to natural conceptions (externalizing problems: b = 0.45 [95% CI, 0.07-0.83]; SRS score: b = 1.12 [95% CI, -0.09 to 2.34]). Offspring of parents with subfecundity had higher odds of ASD (overall: odds ratio [OR], 1.27 [95% CI, 1.03-1.57]; natural conceptions: OR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.04-1.64]). Children conceived via non-IVF treatment had higher odds of ADHD compared with those conceived via natural conception with subfecundity (OR, 1.77 [95% CI, 1.16-2.68]) or without subfecundity (OR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.05-2.25]). There were no significant associations for IVF treatment. In this large US cohort study, subfecundity was associated with elevated scores for caregiver-reported symptoms of behavioral problems and higher odds of ASD diagnosis, independent of infertility treatment. Non-IVF treatment was associated with ADHD, warranting further research into specific indications for treatment that may increase risk of offspring neurodevelopmental problems.

Potential increase of the U.S. total fertility rate resulting from restorative treatment of unresolved subfertility: a simulation study

Stanford JB et al., 2026 · Frontiers in Reproductive Health · Free full text on PubMed Central

Background The total fertility rate (TFR) in most developed countries has been declining for decades. In the United States (U.S.), the total fertility rate has remained below replacement level since 2007. Subfertility affects at least 15% of women or couples over their reproductive lifespan and contributes to reduced TFR. Restorative reproductive medicine (RRM) is a medically based approach to subfertility care that can be delivered in primary care settings to increase live birth rates. Objective To estimate the theoretical impact of use of RRM among subfertile couples in the United States. Methods We conducted a simulation study. Model inputs included the number of women of reproductive age in the United States by 5-year age groups; current age-specific and total fertility rates; the proportion of women in each age group with subfertility; estimated spontaneous live birth rates among women with subfertility; and age-specific crude live birth rates with RRM treatment. We evaluated fifteen scenarios including sensitivity analyses: two different varying assumptions for spontaneous conception (25% vs. 50%), two levels of RRM utilization among subfertile women (20% vs. 50%), three different estimates of the number of subfertile women who would be potentially eligible for RRM treatment, and 4 different levels of effectiveness (live birth) from RRM treatment. Results The baseline TFR in the United States was 1.77 during 2015-2019, and 13.5% of women ages 20-44 were estimated to have subfertility. In a conservative scenario (50% spontaneous births; 20% RRM utilization; married women trying to conceive for at least 12 months, 20.7% RRM live births), the TFR increased to 1.79, representing a 1.0% relative increase (absolute +0.02). In an optimistic scenario (25% spontaneous births; 50% RRM utilization; all subfertile women), the TFR increased to 2.02, a 14.5% relative increase (absolute +0.26), approaching replacement-level fertility. Conclusion Simulation results suggest that expanding access to RRM within primary care settings could meaningfully increase the U.S. TFR, by reducing unresolved subfertility. Realizing this potential would require policy and health system changes to address workforce capacity, insurance coverage, and equitable access. These findings underscore the potential contribution of non-IVF fertility care pathways in addressing population-level fertility decline.

Restorative Reproductive Medicine Restricting Access to Care

Minjeur M et al., 2026 · JAMA

Cumulative live-birth rates after in vitro fertilization

Malizia BA et al., 2009 · N Engl J Med

Outcomes of in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment are traditionally reported as pregnancies per IVF cycle. However, a couple's primary concern is the chance of a live birth over an entire treatment course. We estimated cumulative live-birth rates among patients undergoing their first fresh-embryo, nondonor IVF cycle between 2000 and 2005 at one large center. Couples were followed until either discontinuation of treatment or delivery of a live-born infant. Analyses were stratified according to maternal age and performed with the use of both optimistic and conservative methods. Optimistic methods assumed that patients who did not return for subsequent IVF cycles would have the same chance of a pregnancy resulting in a live birth as patients who continued treatment; conservative methods assumed no live births among patients who did not return. Among 6164 patients undergoing 14,248 cycles, the cumulative live-birth rate after 6 cycles was 72% (95% confidence interval [CI], 70 to 74) with the optimistic analysis and 51% (95% CI, 49 to 52) with the conservative analysis. Among patients who were younger than 35 years of age, the corresponding rates after six cycles were 86% (95% CI, 83 to 88) and 65% (95% CI, 64 to 67). Among patients who were 40 years of age or older, the corresponding rates were 42% (95% CI, 37 to 47) and 23% (95% CI, 21 to 25). The cumulative live-birth rate decreased with increasing age, and the age-stratified curves (< 35 vs. > or = 40 years) were significantly different from one another (P<0.001). Our results indicate that IVF may largely overcome infertility in younger women, but it does not reverse the age-dependent decline in fertility.

Cumulative birth rates with linked assisted reproductive technology cycles

Luke B et al., 2012 · The New England journal of medicine · Free full text on PubMed Central

Live-birth rates after treatment with assisted reproductive technology have traditionally been reported on a per-cycle basis. For women receiving continued treatment, cumulative success rates are a more important measure. We linked data from cycles of assisted reproductive technology in the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System database for the period from 2004 through 2009 to individual women in order to estimate cumulative live-birth rates. Conservative estimates assumed that women who did not return for treatment would not have a live birth; optimal estimates assumed that these women would have live-birth rates similar to those for women continuing treatment. The data were from 246,740 women, with 471,208 cycles and 140,859 live births. Live-birth rates declined with increasing maternal age and increasing cycle number with autologous, but not donor, oocytes. By the third cycle, the conservative and optimal estimates of live-birth rates with autologous oocytes had declined from 63.3% and 74.6%, respectively, for women younger than 31 years of age to 18.6% and 27.8% for those 41 or 42 years of age and to 6.6% and 11.3% for those 43 years of age or older. When donor oocytes were used, the rates were higher than 60% and 80%, respectively, for all ages. Rates were higher with blastocyst embryos (day of transfer, 5 or 6) than with cleavage embryos (day of transfer, 2 or 3). At the third cycle, the conservative and optimal estimates of cumulative live-birth rates were, respectively, 42.7% and 65.3% for transfer of cleavage embryos and 52.4% and 80.7% for transfer of blastocyst embryos when fresh autologous oocytes were used. Our results indicate that live-birth rates approaching natural fecundity can be achieved by means of assisted reproductive technology when there are favorable patient and embryo characteristics. Live-birth rates among older women are lower than those among younger women when autologous oocytes are used but are similar to the rates among young women when donor oocytes are used. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology.).

Factors influencing the cumulative conception rate and discontinuation of in vitro fertilization treatment for infertility

Sharma V et al., 2002 · Fertil Steril

To examine the cumulative conception rate and live birth rate in women undergoing IVF and to assess the influence of prognostic factors on cumulative conception rate and discontinuation of treatment. Retrospective analysis of data from couples undergoing IVF. Assisted conception unit of a university hospital. PATIENT(S): Two thousand fifty-six patients undergoing 2708 cycles of IVF from April 1992 to March 1999. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Cumulative conception rate by age, number of oocytes retrieved, and embryos transferred, and the influence of these factors on dropout rates. RESULT(S): The cumulative conception rate and cumulative live birth rate after four attempts were 75% and 66%, respectively. The cumulative conception rate differed significantly between women 35 years of age or younger and those older than 35 years who had five or more oocytes retrieved (83% vs. 63%). When fewer than five oocytes were retrieved in women 35 years of age or younger, the cumulative conception rate decreased to 33%. Overall, 36% of patients continued treatment after the first attempt; these patients were more likely to have more than five oocytes retrieved and more than two embryos available for transfer. The cumulative conception rate was greater when the female partner was 35 years of age or younger and had more than five oocytes retrieved and more than two embryos were available for transfer. These factors influenced dropout rates.

Heterogeneity, the masked part of reproductive technology success rates

Ecochard R, 2005 · Revue d'epidemiologie et de sante publique

Heterogeneity in women and men's fecundity is a well-established fact. The selection process of men and women treated for infertility might bias the success rates of reproductive technology. Bias may also arise from frequency and timing of intercourse with respect to the day of ovulation. Several datasets were collected and analysed. They concern normally fertile couples who used natural family planning methods and infertile couples treated by artificial insemination with husband or donor's spermatozoa. The effects of heterogeneity on the success rates of treatment cycles are described and solutions are proposed as to data collection and statistical analysis in this specific field. The decrease in the success rates along successive cycles of assisted reproduction is a consequence of heterogeneity. The probability of conception varies among women and among men. After a first success, the probability of another success is higher. After a failure, the probability of success is lower. The most specialised centres treat the less fecund couples. There is a negative correlation between men and women's fertility in case of oligo/azoospermia. The fecund window cannot be correctly located by calendar calculations, but more appropriately by assessment of cervical mucus at the vulva. The variability of this location is wide. The decrease in the success rate with men and women's age results from a complex mixture of an increase in the proportion of sterile patients and a decrease in fecund patients' fecundity. Care should be taken to limit the bias due to patient selection and specific statistical methods should be used to allow for the progressive selection of patients during fertility studies and for the variability of the frequency and the timing of intercourse or insemination relative to ovulation.