Colombo, B., Mion, A., Passarin, K., & Scarpa, B. (2006). Cervical mucus symptom and daily fecundability: first results from a new database. Statistical methods in medical research, 15(2), 161-180. https://doi.org/10.1191/0962280206sm437oa
Colombo B, Mion A, Passarin K, Scarpa B. Cervical mucus symptom and daily fecundability: first results from a new database. Stat Methods Med Res. 2006;15(2):161-180. doi:10.1191/0962280206sm437oa
Colombo, B., et al. "Cervical mucus symptom and daily fecundability: first results from a new database." Statistical methods in medical research, vol. 15, no. 2, 2006, pp. 161-180.
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With the collaboration of Italian centres providing services on natural family planning, a prospective study collected data on 2755 menstrual cycles of 193 women. A database was constructed using information on the daily characteristics of cervical mucus and episodes of intercourse. Taking the day of peak mucus as a conventional marker of ovulation, the database identified the length (12 days) and location of a 'window' of potential fertility, the highest level of conception probability being confined to the central five to six days. Univariate analysis provided evidence of the impact on fecundability of the woman's age and the basic infertile pattern of a cycle. Several analytical approaches highlighted the relationship between daily mucus characteristics and levels of fecundability
Bouchard TP et al., 2026·Journal of ovarian research·Free to read
Reproductive hormones of the fertile window are often referenced to women in regular cycles, but this may not be representative of the hormonal profiles of women in different circumstances like polycystic ovarian syndrome, the postpartum period, and the perimenopause transition. This observational cohort study sought to identify the variability in the reproductive hormones in various clinical circumstances and to establish potential thresholds for each category based on hormone measurements with the Mira urinary hormone monitor. A total of 57 women (ages 22-51) in various circumstances (regular cycles, polycystic ovarian syndrome, postpartum and perimenopause) tracked Mira urine hormone measurements (estrone-3-glucuronide, luteinizing hormone, pregnanediol glucuronide), contributing 444 cycles of data. Using additive mixed models, hormone values were stratified by the four different reproductive categories. The perimenopause and polycystic ovarian syndrome groups demonstrated relative hypoestrogenic states, while the perimenopause group showed low luteal pregnanediol glucuronide and the polycystic ovarian syndrome/polyendocrine metabolic ovarian syndrome (PCOS/PMOS) group showed high luteal pregnanediol glucuronide. The perimenopause group had significantly higher luteinizing hormone values throughout the whole cycle. The fertile window hormone thresholds vary depending on a woman's specific reproductive category. Women in different circumstances should not necessarily use the same hormonal thresholds for the fertile window and ovulation. A larger dataset with ultrasound correlation to ovulation is required to delineate the fertile window with more precision. Hormone differences across the menstrual cycle could be used for targeted treatments in polycystic ovarian syndrome and perimenopause women.
Intercourse results in a pregnancy essentially only if it occurs during the 6-day fertile interval ending on the day of ovulation. The strong association between timing of intercourse within this interval and the probability of conception typically is attributed to limited sperm and egg life times. A total of 782 women recruited from natural family planning centres in Europe contributed prospective data on 7288 menstrual cycles. Daily records of intercourse, basal body temperature and vaginal discharge of cervical mucus were collected. Probabilities of conception were estimated according to the timing of intercourse relative to ovulation and a 1-4 score of mucus quality. There was a strong increasing trend in the day-specific probabilities of pregnancy with increases in the mucus score. Adjusting for the mucus score, the day-specific probabilities had limited variability across the fertile interval. Changes in mucus quality across the fertile interval predict the observed pattern in the day-specific probabilities of conception. To maximize the likelihood of conception, intercourse should occur on days with optimal mucus quality, as observed in vaginal discharge, regardless of the exact timing relative to ovulation.
To estimate the effects of aging on the percentage of outwardly healthy couples who are sterile (completely unable to conceive without assisted reproduction) or infertile (unable to conceive within a year of unprotected intercourse).
A prospective fecundability study was conducted in a sample of 782 couples recruited from 7 European centers for natural family planning. Women aged 18-40 years were eligible. Daily intercourse records were used to adjust for timing and frequency of intercourse when estimating the per-menstrual-cycle probability of conception. The number of menstrual cycles required to conceive a clinical pregnancy and the probability of sterility and infertility were derived from the estimated fecundability distributions for men and women of different ages.
Sterility was estimated at about 1%; this percent did not change with age. The percentage infertility was estimated at 8% for women aged 19-26 years, 13-14% for women aged 27-34 years and 18% for women aged 35-39 years. Starting in the late 30s, male age was an important factor, with the percentage failing to conceive within 12 cycles increasing from an estimated 18-28% between ages 35 and 40 years. The estimated percentage of infertile couples that would be able to conceive after an additional 12 cycles of trying varied from 43-63% depending on age.
Increased infertility in older couples is attributable primarily to declines in fertility rates rather than to absolute sterility. Many infertile couples will conceive if they try for an additional year.
This multicenter study has produced a database of 7017 menstrual cycles contributed by 881 women. It provides improved knowledge on length and location of the "fertile window" (identified as of up to 12 days duration) and the patterns and level of daily conception probability. The day of ovulation was identified in each cycle from records of basal body temperature and mucus symptoms. By referencing days of intercourse to the surrogate ovulation markers, estimates of daily fecundability were computed either directly or by the Scwartz model, both for single and multiple acts of intercourse in the fertile window. The relationship between coital pattern and fecundability has been explored. Univariate analysis underlines the significant link with fecundability only of the woman's reproductive history.
Evans-Hoeker E et al., 2013·Fertil Steril·Free full text on PubMed Central
To assess the use of cervical mucus monitoring (CMM) in women trying to conceive and determine whether monitoring is associated with increased cycle-specific probability of conception (fecundability). Time-to-pregnancy cohort study. Population-based cohort. PATIENT(S): Three hundred thirty-one women trying to conceive, ages 30 to 44 years, without known infertility. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): CMM prevalence and fecundability. RESULT(S): During the first cycle of the study, CMM was performed consistently (checked on >66% of pertinent cycle days) by 20 women (6%), inconsistently (34% to 66% of days) by 60 women (18%), infrequently (≤33% of days) by 73 women (22%), and not performed by 178 women (54%). Cycles in which CMM was consistently performed were statistically significantly more likely to result in conception after adjusting for age, race, previous pregnancy, body mass index, intercourse frequency, and urinary luteinizing hormone (LH) monitoring. Fecundability also increased with increasing consistency of CMM. CONCLUSION(S): Among women trying to conceive, CMM is uncommon, but our study suggests that CMM-a free, self-directed method to determine the fertile window-is associated with increased fecundability independent of intercourse frequency or use of urinary LH monitoring.
Najmabadi S et al., 2021·Hum Reprod·Free full text on PubMed Central
What is the normal range of cervical mucus patterns and number of days with high or moderate day-specific probability of pregnancy (if intercourse occurs on a specific day) based on cervical mucus secretion, in women without known subfertility, and how are these patterns related to parity and age? The mean days of peak type (estrogenic) mucus per cycle was 6.4, the mean number of potentially fertile days was 12.1; parous versus nulliparous, and younger nulliparous (<30 years) versus older nulliparous women had more days of peak type mucus, and more potentially fertile days in each cycle. The rise in estrogen prior to ovulation supports the secretion of increasing quantity and estrogenic quality of cervical mucus, and the subsequent rise in progesterone after ovulation causes an abrupt decrease in mucus secretion. Cervical mucus secretion on each day correlates highly with the probability of pregnancy if intercourse occurs on that day, and overall cervical mucus quality for the cycle correlates with cycle fecundability. No prior studies have described parity and age jointly in relation to cervical mucus patterns. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, This study is a secondary data analysis, combining data from three cohorts of women: 'Creighton Model MultiCenter Fecundability Study' (CMFS: retrospective cohort, 1990-1996), 'Time to Pregnancy in Normal Fertility' (TTP: randomized trial, 2003-2006), and 'Creighton Model Effectiveness, Intentions, and Behaviors Assessment' (CEIBA: prospective cohort, 2009-2013). We evaluated cervical mucus patterns and estimated fertile window in 2488 ovulatory cycles of 528 women, followed for up to 1 year. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, Participants were US or Canadian women age 18-40 years, not pregnant, and without any known subfertility. Women were trained to use a standardized protocol (the Creighton Model) for daily vulvar observation, description, and recording of cervical mucus. The mucus peak day (the last day of estrogenic quality mucus) was used as the estimated day of ovulation. We conducted dichotomous stratified analyses for cervical mucus patterns by age, parity, race, recent oral contraceptive use (within 60 days), partial breast feeding, alcohol, and smoking. Focusing on the clinical characteristics most correlated to cervical mucus patterns, linear mixed models were used to assess continuous cervical mucus parameters and generalized linear models using Poisson regression with robust variance were used to assess dichotomous outcomes, stratifying by women's parity and age, while adjusting for recent oral contraceptive use and breast feeding. MAIN The majority of women were <30 years of age (75.4%) (median 27; IQR 24-29), non-Hispanic white (88.1%), with high socioeconomic indicators, and nulliparous (70.8%). The mean (SD) days of estrogenic (peak type) mucus per cycle (a conservative indicator of the fertile window) was 6.4 (4.2) days (median 6; IQR 4-8). The mean (SD) number of any potentially fertile days (a broader clinical indicator of the fertile window) was 12.1 (5.4) days (median 11; IQR 9-14). Taking into account recent oral contraceptive use and breastfeeding, nulliparous women age ≥30 years compared to nulliparous women age <30 years had fewer mean days of peak type mucus per cycle (5.3 versus 6.4 days, P = 0.02), and fewer potentially fertile days (11.8 versus 13.9 days, P < 0.01). Compared to nulliparous women age <30 years, the likelihood of cycles with peak type mucus ≤2 days, potentially fertile days ≤9, and cervical mucus cycle score (for estrogenic quality of mucus) ≤5.0 were significantly higher among nulliparous women age ≥30 years, 1.90 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18, 3.06); 1.46 (95% CI 1.12, 1.91); and 1.45 (95% CI 1.03, 2.05), respectively. Between parous women, there was little difference in mucus parameters by age. Thresholds set a priori for within-woman variability of cervical mucus parameters by cycle were examined as follows: most minus fewest days of peak type mucus >3 days (exceeded by 72% of women), most minus fewest days of non-peak type mucus >4 days (exceeded by 54% of women), greatest minus least cervical mucus cycle score >4.0 (exceeded by 73% of women), and most minus fewest potentially fertile days >8 days (found in 50% of women). Race did not have any association with cervical mucus parameters. Recent oral contraceptive use was associated with reduced cervical mucus cycle score and partial breast feeding was associated with a higher number of days of mucus (both peak type and non-peak type), consistent with prior research. Among the women for whom data were available (CEIBA and TTP), alcohol and tobacco use had minimal impact on cervical mucus parameters. LIMITATIONS, We did not have data on some factors that may impact ovulation, hormone levels, and mucus secretion, such as physical activity and body mass index. We cannot exclude the possibility that some women had unknown subfertility or undiagnosed gynecologic disorders. Only 27 women were age 35 or older. Our study participants were geographically dispersed but relatively homogeneous with regard to race, ethnicity, income, and educational level, which may limit the generalizability of the findings. Patterns of cervical mucus secretion observed by women are an indicator of fecundity and the fertile window that are consistent with the known associations of age and parity with fecundity. The number of potentially fertile days (12 days) is likely greater than commonly assumed, while the number of days of highly estrogenic mucus (and higher probability of pregnancy) correlates with prior identifications of the fertile window (6 days). There may be substantial variability in fecundability between cycles for the same woman. Future work can use cervical mucus secretion as an indicator of fecundity and should investigate the distribution of similar cycle parameters in women with various reproductive or gynecologic pathologies. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): Funding for the three cohorts analyzed was provided by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (CMFS), the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (TTP), and the Office of Family Planning, Office of Population Affairs, Health and Human Services (CEIBA). The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. N/A.
Stanford JB et al., 2019·Fertil Steril·Free full text on PubMed Central
To quantify the frequency of use of selected fertility awareness indicators and to assess their influence on fecundability. Web-based prospective cohort study. Not applicable. PATIENT(S): Female pregnancy planners, aged 21-45 years, attempting conception for ≤6 cycles at study entry. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): We ascertained time to pregnancy, in menstrual cycles, with bimonthly questionnaires. We estimated adjusted fecundability ratios (FRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) using proportional probabilities models, controlling for age, income, education, smoking, intercourse frequency, and other lifestyle and reproductive factors. RESULT(S): A total of 5,688 women were analyzed, with a mean age of 29.9 years and mean time trying of 2.1 cycles at baseline; 30% had ever been pregnant. At baseline, 75% were using one or more fertility indicators (counting days or charting menstrual cycles [71%], measuring basal body temperature [BBT, 21%], monitoring cervical fluid [39%], using urine LH tests [32%], or feeling for changes in position of the cervix [12%]). Women using any fertility indicator at baseline had higher subsequent fecundability (adjusted FR 1.25, 95% CI 1.16-1.35) than those not using any fertility indicators. For each individual indicator, adjusted FRs ranged from 1.28-1.36, where 1.00 would indicate no relation with fecundability. The adjusted FR for women using a combination of charting days, cervical fluid, and urine LH was 1.48 (95% CI 1.31-1.67) relative to women using no fertility indicators. CONCLUSION(S): In a North American preconception cohort study, use of fertility indicators indicating the fertile window was common, and was associated with greater fecundability.
Fertility awareness based methods (FABMs) can be used to ameliorate the likelihood to conceive. A literature search was performed to evaluate the relationship of cervical mucus monitoring (CMM) and the day-specific -pregnancy rate, in case of subfertility. A MEDLINE search revealed a total of 3331 articles. After excluding articles based on their relevance, 10 studies and were selected. The observed studies demonstrated that the cervical mucus monitoring (CMM) can identify the days with the highest pregnancy rate. According to the literature, the quality of the vaginal discharge correlates well with the cycle-specific probability of pregnancy in normally fertile couples but less in subfertile couples. The results indicate an urgent need for more prospective randomised trials and -prospective cohort studies on CMM in a subfertile population to evaluate the effectiveness of CMM in the subfertile couple.
PMID 16615655 16615655 DOI 10.1191/0962280206sm437oa 10.1191/0962280206sm437oa Colombo et al. 2006, Colombo 2006
Cite this article
Colombo, B., Mion, A., Passarin, K., & Scarpa, B. (2006). Cervical mucus symptom and daily fecundability: first results from a new database. Statistical methods in medical research, 15(2), 161-180. https://doi.org/10.1191/0962280206sm437oa
Colombo B, Mion A, Passarin K, Scarpa B. Cervical mucus symptom and daily fecundability: first results from a new database. Stat Methods Med Res. 2006;15(2):161-180. doi:10.1191/0962280206sm437oa
Colombo, B., et al. "Cervical mucus symptom and daily fecundability: first results from a new database." Statistical methods in medical research, vol. 15, no. 2, 2006, pp. 161-180.
