Impact of emerging virus pandemics on cause-specific maternal mortality time series: a population-based natural experiment using national vital statistics, Argentina 1980-2017
Critto ME,Enriquez Y,Bravo M,Quevedo LJ,Weinberg R,Etchegaray A,Koch ES
Published November 19, 2021Lancet regional health. Americas
Emerging pandemic viruses may have multiple deleterious effects on maternal health. This study examines the effects of a pandemic influenza virus on cause-specific maternal mortality time series, using Argentinian vital statistics.
Methods
We conducted a population-based natural experiment from national vital records of maternal deaths between 1980 and 2017. Joinpoint regression models were used to model time series of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR). The sensitivity of the registry to detect the effects of the pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza virus on cause-specific MMR was analysed using a panel of parallel interrupted time series (ITS).
Findings
Over this 38-year study, the MMR decreased by 58·6% (69·5 to 28·8 deaths/100,000 live births), transitioning from direct obstetric causes (67·0 to 21·1/100,000 live births; 68·4% decrease) to indirect causes (2·6 to 7·7/100,000 live births; 196·2% increase). The regression analysis showed an average reduction of -2·2%/year (95% CI: -2·9 to -1·4) with 2 join points in the total trend (1998 and 2009). Parallel ITS analyses revealed the pandemic H1N1 virus had an increasing effect on mortality from the respiratory system- and sepsis-related complications (level change 4·7 and 1·6/100,000 live births respectively), reversing after the outbreak. No effect was found on MMR from hypertensive disorders, haemorrhage, abortive outcomes, other direct obstetric causes, and indirect non-respiratory comorbidities.
Interpretation
The Argentinian maternal death registry appears sensitive to detect different effects of emerging infectious epidemics on maternal health. In a population-based natural experiment, pandemic H1N1 virus impacted maternal mortality almost exclusively from the respiratory system- and sepsis-related complications.
Enriquez Y et al., 2024·PLOS global public health·Free full text on PubMed Central
This study estimated the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal mortality in Chile between 2020 and 2021. A natural experiment was conducted using official data on maternal deaths and live births (LBs) between 1997 and 2021. The effects of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak were evaluated using interrupted time series (ITS) and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast the expected rates on MMR and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). In Chile, following World Health Organization suggestions, maternal deaths aggravated by SARS-CoV-2 are assigned to code O98.5 (non-respiratory infectious indirect) accompanied by code U07.1 or U07.2, depending on confirmation of the presence or absence of the virus. ITS analysis revealed that the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak impacted the MMR due to indirect causes, with a greater increase in indirect nonrespiratory causes than respiratory causes. The ARIMA forecast was consistent with ITS, showing that the expected MMR for indirect causes (3.44 in 2020 and 1.55 in 2021) was substantially lower than the observed rates (9.65 in 2020 and 7.46/100.000 LBs in 2021). For nonrespiratory indirect causes, the observed values of the MMR for 2020 (8.77/100.000 LBs) and 2021 (7.46/100.000 LBs) were double the predicted values of 4.02 (95% CI: 0.44-7.61) and 3.83 (95% CI: -0.12-7.79), respectively. A lower effect was observed on direct obstetrical deaths. During 2020-2021, there was a rise in the MMR in Chile attributable to SARS-CoV-2. The pandemic contributed to an escalation in the MMR due to indirect causes, particularly nonrespiratory and infectious causes. MMR due to direct obstetric causes were less affected. This suggests that the pandemic disproportionately affected maternal health by exacerbating conditions unrelated to pregnancy, childbirth, or postpartum, more than those directly linked to obstetric complications.
Kajdy A et al., 2022·Int J Gynaecol Obstet·Free full text on PubMed Central
To assess risk factors for anxiety and depression among pregnant women during the COVID-19 pandemic using Mind-COVID, a prospective cross-sectional study that compares outcomes in middle-income economies and high-income economies. A total of 7102 pregnant women from 12 high-income economies and nine middle-income economies were included. The web-based survey used two standardized instruments, General Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) and Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9). Pregnant women in high-income economies reported higher PHQ-9 (0.18 standard deviation [SD], P < 0.001) and GAD-7 (0.08 SD, P = 0.005) scores than those living in middle-income economies. Multivariate regression analysis showed that increasing PHQ-9 and GAD-7 scales were associated with mental health problems during pregnancy and the need for psychiatric treatment before pregnancy. PHQ-9 was associated with a feeling of burden related to restrictions in social distancing, and access to leisure activities. GAD-7 scores were associated with a pregnancy-related complication, fear of adverse outcomes in children related to COVID-19, and feeling of burden related to finances. According to this study, the imposed public health measures and hospital restrictions have left pregnant women more vulnerable during these difficult times. Adequate partner and family support during pregnancy and childbirth can be one of the most important protective factors against anxiety and depression, regardless of national economic status.
Policy and Regulation · Access and Coverage Policy
Koch E et al., 2015·BMJ open·Free full text on PubMed Central
To test whether there is an association between abortion legislation and maternal mortality outcomes after controlling for other factors thought to influence maternal health.
Population-based natural experiment.
Official maternal mortality data from 32 federal states of Mexico between 2002 and 2011.
Maternal mortality ratio (MMR), MMR with any abortive outcome (MMRAO) and induced abortion mortality ratio (iAMR).
Abortion legislation grouped as less (n=18) or more permissive (n=14); constitutional amendment protecting the unborn (n=17); skilled attendance at birth; all-abortion hospitalisation ratio; low birth weight rate; contraceptive use; total fertility rates (TFR); clean water; sanitation; female literacy rate and intimate-partner violence.
Over the 10-year period, states with less permissive abortion legislation exhibited lower MMR (38.3 vs 49.6; p<0.001), MMRAO (2.7 vs 3.7; p<0.001) and iAMR (0.9 vs 1.7; p<0.001) than more permissive states. Multivariate regression models estimating effect sizes (β-coefficients) for mortality outcomes showed independent associations (p values between 0.001 and 0.055) with female literacy (β=-0.061 to -1.100), skilled attendance at birth (β=-0.032 to -0.427), low birth weight (β=0.149 to 2.166), all-abortion hospitalisation ratio (β=-0.566 to -0.962), clean water (β=-0.048 to -0.730), sanitation (β=-0.052 to -0.758) and intimate-partner violence (β=0.085 to 0.755). TFR showed an inverse association with MMR (β=-14.329) and MMRAO (β=-1.750) and a direct association with iAMR (β=1.383). Altogether, these factors accounted for (R(2)) 51-88% of the variance among states in overall mortality rates. No statistically independent effect was observed for abortion legislation, constitutional amendment or other covariates.
Although less permissive states exhibited consistently lower maternal mortality rates, this finding was not explained by abortion legislation itself. Rather, these differences were explained by other independent factors, which appeared to have a more favourable distribution in these states.
Koch E et al., 2012·International journal of women's health·Free full text on PubMed Central
In countries where induced abortion is legally restricted, as in most of Latin America, evaluation of statistics related to induced abortions and abortion-related mortality is challenging. The present article reexamines recent reports estimating the number of induced abortions and abortion-related mortality in Mexico, with special reference to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD). We found significant overestimations of abortion figures in the Federal District of Mexico (up to 10-fold), where elective abortion has been legal since 2007. Significant overestimation of maternal and abortion-related mortality during the last 20 years in the entire Mexican country (up to 35%) was also found. Such overestimations are most likely due to the use of incomplete in-hospital records as well as subjective opinion surveys regarding induced abortion figures, and due to the consideration of causes of death that are unrelated to induced abortion, including flawed denominators of live births. Contrary to previous publications, we found important progress in maternal health, reflected by the decrease in overall maternal mortality (30.6%) from 1990 to 2010. The use of specific ICD codes revealed that the mortality ratio associated with induced abortion decreased 22.9% between 2002 and 2008 (from 1.48 to 1.14 deaths per 100,000 live births). Currently, approximately 98% of maternal deaths in Mexico are related to causes other than induced abortion, such as hemorrhage, hypertension and eclampsia, indirect causes, and other pathological conditions. Therefore, only marginal or null effects would be expected from changes in the legal status of abortion on overall maternal mortality rates. Rather, maternal health in Mexico would greatly benefit from increasing access to emergency and specialized obstetric care. Finally, more reliable methodologies to assess abortion-related deaths are clearly required.
Koch E et al., 2012·PloS one·Free full text on PubMed Central
The aim of this study was to assess the main factors related to maternal mortality reduction in large time series available in Chile in context of the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
Time series of maternal mortality ratio (MMR) from official data (National Institute of Statistics, 1957-2007) along with parallel time series of education years, income per capita, fertility rate (TFR), birth order, clean water, sanitary sewer, and delivery by skilled attendants were analysed using autoregressive models (ARIMA). Historical changes on the mortality trend including the effect of different educational and maternal health policies implemented in 1965, and legislation that prohibited abortion in 1989 were assessed utilizing segmented regression techniques.
During the 50-year study period, the MMR decreased from 293.7 to 18.2/100,000 live births, a decrease of 93.8%. Women's education level modulated the effects of TFR, birth order, delivery by skilled attendants, clean water, and sanitary sewer access. In the fully adjusted model, for every additional year of maternal education there was a corresponding decrease in the MMR of 29.3/100,000 live births. A rapid phase of decline between 1965 and 1981 (-13.29/100,000 live births each year) and a slow phase between 1981 and 2007 (-1.59/100,000 live births each year) were identified. After abortion was prohibited, the MMR decreased from 41.3 to 12.7 per 100,000 live births (-69.2%). The slope of the MMR did not appear to be altered by the change in abortion law.
Increasing education level appears to favourably impact the downward trend in the MMR, modulating other key factors such as access and utilization of maternal health facilities, changes in women's reproductive behaviour and improvements of the sanitary system. Consequently, different MDGs can act synergistically to improve maternal health. The reduction in the MMR is not related to the legal status of abortion.
Wikarek A et al., 2022·Journal of clinical medicine·Free full text on PubMed Central
The COVID-19 pandemic undoubtedly had significant effects on women's health and the course of pregnancy. The aim of this single-center study was to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on adult pregnant and postpartum women's mental health, as well as to identify factors associated with depressive symptoms, anxiety and fear of delivery. The 465 women included in this questionnaire-based cohort study were divided into two groups: one (controls) of women who gave birth before (n = 190), and the second who were pregnant and delivered during the pandemic (n = 275). The COVID-19 pandemic affected the severity of self-reported anxiety regarding childbirth (mean scores 2.7 vs. 2.36, p = 0.01). The depression (19.84 ± 13.23) and anxiety (16.71 ± 12.53) scores were higher in pregnant women during the COVID 19 pandemic, compared to women who gave birth before the pandemic (8.21 ± 7.38 and 11.67 ± 9.23, respectively). These findings demonstrate the magnitude of the pandemic's impact on women's mental health, and actions to improve the mental health of pregnant women in Poland may be crucial for maternal and fetal well-being.
Balachandran S et al., 2026·Journal of obstetrics and gynaecology Canada : JOGC = Journal d'obstetrique et gynecologie du Canada : JOGC
To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on reproductive outcomes in patients with recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) and the influence of material and social deprivation on these outcomes.
This retrospective cohort study included RPL patients seen at a specialized clinic between March 1, 2018, and February 28, 2022. Patients were categorized into two groups based on care period: pre-pandemic (March 1, 2018-February 29, 2020) and pandemic (March 1, 2020-February 28, 2022). Cumulative probabilities of birth were estimated using the cumulative incidence function within a competing risk framework, treating pregnancy loss as a competing event. Fine and Gray regression models calculated sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) of birth.
544 patients were included in the study, with 255 in the pre-pandemic group and 289 in the pandemic group. Individuals in the pandemic group were less likely to achieve pregnancy than those in the pre-pandemic group (relative risk = 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39 - 0.66). Among those who conceived, the cumulative probability of live birth was 0.77 in both groups. Relative to individuals residing in high-social deprivation neighborhoods, those living in moderately deprived areas had higher sub-distribution hazards of live birth (adjusted sHR = 1.97, 95% CI 1.25 - 3.10; P = 0.003).
Within specialized RPL care and a universal maternity care system, pregnancy rates were lower during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, among those who conceived, the probability of achieving a live birth remained similar between the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods.
María Elena Critto, Yordanis Enriquez, Miguel Bravo, Lenin de Janon Quevedo, Ruth Weinberg, Adolfo Etchegaray, Elard S Koch
M Critto, Y Enriquez, M Bravo, L Quevedo, R Weinberg, A Etchegaray, E Koch
PMID 36777885 36777885 DOI 10.1016/j.lana.2021.100116 10.1016/j.lana.2021.100116 Critto et al. 2021, Critto 2021
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