Abstract
This study estimated the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal mortality in Chile between 2020 and 2021. A natural experiment was conducted using official data on maternal deaths and live births (LBs) between 1997 and 2021. The effects of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak were evaluated using interrupted time series (ITS) and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast the expected rates on MMR and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). In Chile, following World Health Organization suggestions, maternal deaths aggravated by SARS-CoV-2 are assigned to code O98.5 (non-respiratory infectious indirect) accompanied by code U07.1 or U07.2, depending on confirmation of the presence or absence of the virus. ITS analysis revealed that the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak impacted the MMR due to indirect causes, with a greater increase in indirect nonrespiratory causes than respiratory causes. The ARIMA forecast was consistent with ITS, showing that the expected MMR for indirect causes (3.44 in 2020 and 1.55 in 2021) was substantially lower than the observed rates (9.65 in 2020 and 7.46/100.000 LBs in 2021). For nonrespiratory indirect causes, the observed values of the MMR for 2020 (8.77/100.000 LBs) and 2021 (7.46/100.000 LBs) were double the predicted values of 4.02 (95% CI: 0.44-7.61) and 3.83 (95% CI: -0.12-7.79), respectively. A lower effect was observed on direct obstetrical deaths. During 2020-2021, there was a rise in the MMR in Chile attributable to SARS-CoV-2. The pandemic contributed to an escalation in the MMR due to indirect causes, particularly nonrespiratory and infectious causes. MMR due to direct obstetric causes were less affected. This suggests that the pandemic disproportionately affected maternal health by exacerbating conditions unrelated to pregnancy, childbirth, or postpartum, more than those directly linked to obstetric complications.
By this author
Impact of emerging virus pandemics on cause-specific maternal mortality time series: a population-based natural experiment using national vital statistics, Argentina 1980-2017
Critto ME et al., 2021 · Lancet regional health. Americas · Free full text on PubMed Central
Emerging pandemic viruses may have multiple deleterious effects on maternal health. This study examines the effects of a pandemic influenza virus on cause-specific maternal mortality time series, using Argentinian vital statistics. We conducted a population-based natural experiment from national vital records of maternal deaths between 1980 and 2017. Joinpoint regression models were used to model time series of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR). The sensitivity of the registry to detect the effects of the pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza virus on cause-specific MMR was analysed using a panel of parallel interrupted time series (ITS). Over this 38-year study, the MMR decreased by 58·6% (69·5 to 28·8 deaths/100,000 live births), transitioning from direct obstetric causes (67·0 to 21·1/100,000 live births; 68·4% decrease) to indirect causes (2·6 to 7·7/100,000 live births; 196·2% increase). The regression analysis showed an average reduction of -2·2%/year (95% CI: -2·9 to -1·4) with 2 join points in the total trend (1998 and 2009). Parallel ITS analyses revealed the pandemic H1N1 virus had an increasing effect on mortality from the respiratory system- and sepsis-related complications (level change 4·7 and 1·6/100,000 live births respectively), reversing after the outbreak. No effect was found on MMR from hypertensive disorders, haemorrhage, abortive outcomes, other direct obstetric causes, and indirect non-respiratory comorbidities. The Argentinian maternal death registry appears sensitive to detect different effects of emerging infectious epidemics on maternal health. In a population-based natural experiment, pandemic H1N1 virus impacted maternal mortality almost exclusively from the respiratory system- and sepsis-related complications. Supported by FISAR www.fisarchile.org.
Policy and Regulation · Access and Coverage Policy
Abortion legislation, maternal healthcare, fertility, female literacy, sanitation, violence against women and maternal deaths: a natural experiment in 32 Mexican states
Koch E et al., 2015 · BMJ open · Free full text on PubMed Central
To test whether there is an association between abortion legislation and maternal mortality outcomes after controlling for other factors thought to influence maternal health. Population-based natural experiment. Official maternal mortality data from 32 federal states of Mexico between 2002 and 2011. Maternal mortality ratio (MMR), MMR with any abortive outcome (MMRAO) and induced abortion mortality ratio (iAMR). Abortion legislation grouped as less (n=18) or more permissive (n=14); constitutional amendment protecting the unborn (n=17); skilled attendance at birth; all-abortion hospitalisation ratio; low birth weight rate; contraceptive use; total fertility rates (TFR); clean water; sanitation; female literacy rate and intimate-partner violence. Over the 10-year period, states with less permissive abortion legislation exhibited lower MMR (38.3 vs 49.6; p<0.001), MMRAO (2.7 vs 3.7; p<0.001) and iAMR (0.9 vs 1.7; p<0.001) than more permissive states. Multivariate regression models estimating effect sizes (β-coefficients) for mortality outcomes showed independent associations (p values between 0.001 and 0.055) with female literacy (β=-0.061 to -1.100), skilled attendance at birth (β=-0.032 to -0.427), low birth weight (β=0.149 to 2.166), all-abortion hospitalisation ratio (β=-0.566 to -0.962), clean water (β=-0.048 to -0.730), sanitation (β=-0.052 to -0.758) and intimate-partner violence (β=0.085 to 0.755). TFR showed an inverse association with MMR (β=-14.329) and MMRAO (β=-1.750) and a direct association with iAMR (β=1.383). Altogether, these factors accounted for (R(2)) 51-88% of the variance among states in overall mortality rates. No statistically independent effect was observed for abortion legislation, constitutional amendment or other covariates. Although less permissive states exhibited consistently lower maternal mortality rates, this finding was not explained by abortion legislation itself. Rather, these differences were explained by other independent factors, which appeared to have a more favourable distribution in these states.
Policy and Regulation · Access and Coverage Policy
The Epidemiology of Abortion And Its Prevention in Chile
Koch E, 2015 · Issues in law & medicine
Mortality by abortion has continuously decreased over the past fifty years in Chile. In fact, maternal death as a result of an induced abortion has become an exceptionally rare phenomenon in epidemiological terms (a risk of 1 in 4 million pregnant women of fertile age or 0.4 per 100,000 life births for abortion of any type, excluding ectopic pregnancy). After abortion became illegal in 1989, deaths related to abortion continued to decrease from 10.8 to 0.39 per 100,000 live births. This scientific fact challenges the common notion that less permissive abortion laws lead to greater mortality associated with abortion.
Policy and Regulation · Access and Coverage Policy
Impact of reproductive laws on maternal mortality: the chilean natural experiment
Koch E, 2013 · The Linacre quarterly · Free full text on PubMed Central
Improving maternal health and decreasing morbidity and mortality due to induced abortion are key endeavors in developing countries. One of the most controversial subjects surrounding interventions to improve maternal health is the effect of abortion laws. Chile offers a natural laboratory to perform an investigation on the determinants influencing maternal health in a large parallel time-series of maternal deaths, analyzing health and socioeconomic indicators, and legislative policies including abortion banning in 1989. Interestingly, abortion restriction in Chile was not associated with an increase in overall maternal mortality or with abortion deaths and total number of abortions. Contrary to the notion proposing a negative impact of restrictive abortion laws on maternal health, the abortion mortality ratio did not increase after the abortion ban in Chile. Rather, it decreased over 96 percent, from 10.8 to 0.39 per 100,000 live births. Thus, the Chilean natural experiment provides for the first time, strong evidence supporting the hypothesis that legalization of abortion is unnecessary to improve maternal health in Latin America.
Related research
Outcomes and Effectiveness · Live Birth Rates
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on pregnancy complications and conceptions resulting in births following spontaneous conception and in-vitro fertilization in British Columbia: A population-based study
Eckler R et al., 2025 · PloS one · Free full text on PubMed Central
To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic's onset on clinical and demographic characteristics, pregnancy complications, and monthly conception rates resulting in births through spontaneous conceptions and in-vitro fertilization (IVF) in British Columbia (BC), Canada. This retrospective population-based cohort study examined individuals who gave birth (both live births and stillbirths) in BC between June 1, 2010, and March 31, 2021, with estimated conception dates from January 1, 2010 to June 30, 2020. Data were obtained from the BC Perinatal Data Registry. Two groups were identified based on the estimated conception date: the pre-pandemic conception group (conception from January-1-2010 to February-29-2020) and the pandemic conception group (conception from March-1-2020 to June-30-2020). A time series forecasting method (ARIMA) was employed to observe trends in conception rates during the study period. 304,244 individuals with pregnancies resulting in live births or stillbirths during the study period were evaluated. A total of 429,843 such conceptions were included in the study: 417,753 (97.2%) occurring before the onset of the pandemic and 12,090 (2.8%) in the pandemic period. In June 2020, conceptions resulting in births decreased by 26.6% compared with June 2019. Trends in conceptions resulting in live births were similar, with a conception rate of 235.2 per 100,000 women of reproductive age in June 2020, compared with the expected rate of 305.0 per 100,000. In March 2020, 0.5% of conceptions that resulted in births ended in stillbirths, compared to 1.7% in March 2019. IVF conceptions ending in births declined during the pandemic, dropping to 2.5 and 2.8 per 100,000 in March and April 2020, respectively, compared with the expected 13.1 per 100,000. However, by June 2020, these rates began to recover toward the expected levels. Rates of gestational diabetes mellites (GDM), gestational hypertension (GHTN), and postpartum intensive care unit (ICU) admissions were similar before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the challenging period of the COVID-19 pandemic in BC, couples may have chosen to delay conception. Rates of conceptions resulting in stillbirths remained relatively unchanged. IVF conception rates were impacted by the suspension of elective procedures. Preterm birth rates slightly exceeded expected levels but remained within normal fluctuations, and small increases in GDM and GHTN prevalence were also observed.
Birth Outcomes · Maternal Mortality
Women's education level, maternal health facilities, abortion legislation and maternal deaths: a natural experiment in Chile from 1957 to 2007
Koch E et al., 2012 · PloS one · Free full text on PubMed Central
The aim of this study was to assess the main factors related to maternal mortality reduction in large time series available in Chile in context of the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Time series of maternal mortality ratio (MMR) from official data (National Institute of Statistics, 1957-2007) along with parallel time series of education years, income per capita, fertility rate (TFR), birth order, clean water, sanitary sewer, and delivery by skilled attendants were analysed using autoregressive models (ARIMA). Historical changes on the mortality trend including the effect of different educational and maternal health policies implemented in 1965, and legislation that prohibited abortion in 1989 were assessed utilizing segmented regression techniques. During the 50-year study period, the MMR decreased from 293.7 to 18.2/100,000 live births, a decrease of 93.8%. Women's education level modulated the effects of TFR, birth order, delivery by skilled attendants, clean water, and sanitary sewer access. In the fully adjusted model, for every additional year of maternal education there was a corresponding decrease in the MMR of 29.3/100,000 live births. A rapid phase of decline between 1965 and 1981 (-13.29/100,000 live births each year) and a slow phase between 1981 and 2007 (-1.59/100,000 live births each year) were identified. After abortion was prohibited, the MMR decreased from 41.3 to 12.7 per 100,000 live births (-69.2%). The slope of the MMR did not appear to be altered by the change in abortion law. Increasing education level appears to favourably impact the downward trend in the MMR, modulating other key factors such as access and utilization of maternal health facilities, changes in women's reproductive behaviour and improvements of the sanitary system. Consequently, different MDGs can act synergistically to improve maternal health. The reduction in the MMR is not related to the legal status of abortion.
Labor and Birth · Physiologic Birth
Does the COVID-19 pandemic have an impact on fears and concerns among pregnant women?
Zabochnicki M et al., 2024 · Annales Academiae Medicae Silesiensis · Free to read
Wprowadzenie Objawy lękowe i depresyjne są powszechnymi objawami w okresie ciąży. Wystąpienie pandemii wirusa COVID-19 jest wyjątkowym stresorem, który wpłynął na psychologiczny aspekt przebiegu porodu. Celem pracy jest ocena wpływu pandemii COVID-19 na przebieg ciąży i porodu w populacji polskiej. Materiał i metody Grupę badawczą stanowiło 2186 kobiet. Badanie ankietowe zostało przeprowadzone w okresie od listopada 2020 r. do grudnia 2020 r. za pośrednictwem Internetu. Kryterium włączenia do badania były ciąża i poród w okresie pandemii COVID-19. Do oceny stopnia poziomu strachu i obaw wykorzystano pytania stworzone przez autorów z zastosowaniem pięciostopniowej skali Likerta. Wyniki U kobiet hospitalizowanych w czasie ciąży występował większy poziom strachu i obaw związanych z ciążą (średnia 30,9 vs 29,6; p = 0,007). Podobną zależność stwierdzono w przypadku kobiet, u których wykonano cesarskie cięcie (30,6 vs 29,5; p = 0,006) lub które były hospitalizowane > 7 dni (31,8 vs 29,7; p = 0,012). Stwierdzono również istotną statystycznie, choć słabą korelację pomiędzy średnimi wynikami pytań dotyczących obaw a liczbą hospitalizacji w czasie ciąży (współczynnik korelacji Pearsona r = 0,1654; p < 0,000). Wnioski Badanie wykazało alarmująco wysoki poziom lęku u kobiet w ciąży podczas pandemii COVID-19, co może mieć długoterminowe konsekwencje dla ich dzieci.
Stress and Allostatic Load · Stress and Ovulation
Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Affect Labor-Related Anxiety and Prevalence of Depressive Symptoms in Pregnant Women?
Wikarek A et al., 2022 · Journal of clinical medicine · Free full text on PubMed Central
The COVID-19 pandemic undoubtedly had significant effects on women's health and the course of pregnancy. The aim of this single-center study was to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on adult pregnant and postpartum women's mental health, as well as to identify factors associated with depressive symptoms, anxiety and fear of delivery. The 465 women included in this questionnaire-based cohort study were divided into two groups: one (controls) of women who gave birth before (n = 190), and the second who were pregnant and delivered during the pandemic (n = 275). The COVID-19 pandemic affected the severity of self-reported anxiety regarding childbirth (mean scores 2.7 vs. 2.36, p = 0.01). The depression (19.84 ± 13.23) and anxiety (16.71 ± 12.53) scores were higher in pregnant women during the COVID 19 pandemic, compared to women who gave birth before the pandemic (8.21 ± 7.38 and 11.67 ± 9.23, respectively). These findings demonstrate the magnitude of the pandemic's impact on women's mental health, and actions to improve the mental health of pregnant women in Poland may be crucial for maternal and fetal well-being.
Yordanis Enriquez, María Elena Critto, Ruth Weinberg, Lenin de Janon Quevedo, Aliro Galleguillos, Elard Koch
Y Enriquez, M Critto, R Weinberg, L Quevedo, A Galleguillos, E Koch
PMID 38990926 38990926 DOI 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002882 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002882 Enriquez et al. 2024, Enriquez 2024