Research Methods · Study Design

Analysis of clinical fertility trials: a methodologic review

Olive DL

Published February 1986 Fertility and Sterility, 45(2), 157-171
DOI 10.1016/s0015-0282(16)49148-x PMID 3512311
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RRM Academy Synopsis

Fertility trials without a control group can overstate success

A 1986 review looked at how fertility studies are set up. It drew on psychiatry, liver surgery, and infertility trials from one journal. Uncontrolled psychiatry and liver-surgery studies reported success far more often than controlled ones.

Key Findings

  • In a review of 52 published uncontrolled trials in psychiatry, 85% reported a therapeutic success. Only 25% of 20 controlled trials did.
  • Among 53 published studies of a liver-shunt surgery, 75% of the 32 uncontrolled studies reached a strongly favorable conclusion. None of the 6 well-controlled trials did.
  • Among trials in four sampled years of one journal, 27 came in 1983, more than the other three years combined; only 3 were experimental and 40% had no control group.
  • Leridon and Spira, cited by the author, projected that among couples unable to conceive for 3 years, pregnancy in the fourth year could be as high as 41% to 48%.
  • Reviewing 50 non-IVF fertility trials from five later journal volumes, only 15 used life-table analysis; of those, 5 ran no further statistical test.

Interpretation

This methods commentary is not a clinical trial. The author reviewed how fertility studies were designed and analyzed, using findings from psychiatry and liver surgery to show how a missing control group can inflate reported success. The examples show a pattern but do not prove any single fertility study was wrong. The author's own count of trials describes one journal's output over that era. The paper does not test any treatment itself. The paper explains why the way a pregnancy rate is calculated, and whether a study has a control group, changes how much its reported success can be trusted.

RRM Context

This paper predates restorative reproductive medicine (RRM) by decades, but the lessons still apply. RRM outcome studies increasingly report pregnancy over time using life tables, a shift this paper argued for. The author cites Leridon and Spira's estimate that as many as 41% to 48% of long-infertile couples conceive on their own in the fourth year, with no treatment. A treatment's raw success number means little without a comparison group.

Abstract not indexed.

Topics

By this author

Related research

Research Methods › Study Design › Randomized Controlled Trials
PMID 3512311 3512311 DOI 10.1016/s0015-0282(16)49148-x 10.1016/s0015-0282(16)49148-x Olive et al. 1986, Olive 1986

Cite this article

Olive, D. L. (1986). Analysis of clinical fertility trials: a methodologic review. Fertility and Sterility, 45(2), 157-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0015-0282(16)49148-x