Reproductive Endocrinology · Ovulation Physiology

Levonorgestrel emergency contraception: a joint analysis of effectiveness and mechanism of action

Mikolajczyk RT, Stanford JB

Published February 27, 2007 Fertility and Sterility, 88(3), 565-571
DOI 10.1016/j.fertnstert.2006.11.178 PMID 17320877
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RRM Academy Synopsis

Levonorgestrel EC trial results exceed ovulation-only model estimates

Disruption of ovulation alone could prevent about 5 out of 10 pregnancies at most, a simulation of levonorgestrel emergency contraception (EC) finds, when taken with no delay. With a 72-hour delay the modeled effect falls to fewer than 1 out of 10. The model used ultrasound data from 107 women. Trial estimates the authors cite run higher.

Key Findings

  • When disruption of ovulation was the only mechanism, modeled effectiveness fell from 49% with no delay to 8% with a 72-hour delay.
  • Under the same assumption, modeled effectiveness was 2% at a 96-hour delay and 0% at a 120-hour delay.
  • If levonorgestrel EC completely prevented fertilization whenever given before the day of ovulation, modeled effectiveness with a 72-hour delay was 16%.
  • The authors cite a trial of 976 women estimating 85% effectiveness within 72 hours, and a study of 1021 women estimating 64% overall with no trend by delay.
  • Recent analyses suggest trial estimates were overestimated by approximately 10% (absolute difference), which the authors say could not account for the gap.

Interpretation

This is a simulation, so no women took levonorgestrel EC in it. The authors combined published data on follicle growth, ovulation effects from one small earlier study, and daily pregnancy odds. They chose assumptions that favor ovulation effects. They could not calculate confidence limits. The model cannot separate the possible reasons for the gap. The authors think both explanations likely contribute: trial estimates that run too high, and other mechanisms, including postfertilization effects. They say ultrasound studies and precise timing data would help.

RRM Context

Restorative reproductive medicine puts the ovulatory cycle first. The odds of pregnancy from one act of sex depend on how far it falls from ovulation. Fertility awareness charting tracks body signs to time ovulation. The follicle data came from women with experience in natural family planning methods. Ultrasound of the follicle shows whether ovulation has happened.

Abstract

Objective

To model the effectiveness that can be obtained if levonorgestrel-only emergency contraception (EC) acts only through disrupting ovulation, in relation to other effects that may occur before or after fertilization and accounting for delays in administration.

Design

We modeled follicular growth as a function of follicular size, using known day-specific probabilities of conception and known disruption of ovulation by levonorgestrel-only EC, to estimate the expected effectiveness of EC.

Setting

Combined data from multiple clinical studies.

Patients

Simulation models.

Interventions

Disruption of ovulation.

Main Outcome Measures

Effectiveness in the form of proportion of pregnancies prevented.

Results

With disruption of ovulation alone, the potential effectiveness of levonorgestrel EC ranged from 49% (no delay) to 8% (72-hour delay). With complete inhibition of fertilization before the day of ovulation, the potential effectiveness of levonorgestrel EC ranged from 90% (no delay) to 16% (72-hour delay).

Conclusions

The gap between effectiveness of levonorgestrel EC estimated from clinical studies and what can be attributed to disruption of ovulation may be explained by overestimation of actual effectiveness and supplementary mechanisms of action, including postfertilization effects. Additional data with follicular ultrasound and precise measures of delay between intercourse and EC administration would yield greater insight into effectiveness and mechanisms of action.

Topics

By this author

Related research

Reproductive Endocrinology › Ovulation Physiology › Anovulation · Contraception › Emergency Contraception › Mechanism and Effectiveness · Therapeutics › Hormonal Agents › Progesterone and Progestins
Joseph B Stanford
Joe Stanford, Joey Stanford, J Stanford
PMID 17320877 17320877 DOI 10.1016/j.fertnstert.2006.11.178 10.1016/j.fertnstert.2006.11.178 Mikolajczyk et al. 2007, Mikolajczyk 2007

Cite this article

Mikolajczyk, R. T., & Stanford, J. B. (2007). Levonorgestrel emergency contraception: a joint analysis of effectiveness and mechanism of action. Fertility and sterility, 88(3), 565-571. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2006.11.178