Time to Resumption of Menses, Spatial Distribution, and Predictors Among Post-partum Period Women in Ethiopia, Evidence From Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016 Data: Gompertz Inverse Gaussian Shared Frailty Model
The timing of the resumption of post-partum menses is important for a woman who intends to avoid subsequent unintended pregnancy, and it has key implications on maternal, neonatal, and child health outcomes. Despite this, information is scant about the time to resumption of post-partum menses and predictors in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the time it takes to start menses and spatial distribution among post-partum period women in Ethiopia and identify its predictors.
Methods
A secondary data analysis was conducted based on 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). A total weighted sample of 6,489 post-partum women was included in the analysis. STATA 14 was used to weigh, clean, and analyze the data. The shared frailty model was applied since the EDHS data have a hierarchical nature. For checking the proportional hazard assumption, the Schenefold residual test, Log-Log plot, Kaplan-Meier, and predicted survival plot were applied. Akakie Information Criteria (AIC), Cox-Snell residual test, and deviance were used for checking model adequacy and for model comparison. Based on these, the Gompertz inverse Gaussian shared frailty model was the best-fitted model for this data. Variables with a p < 0.2 were considered for the multivariable Gompertz inverse Gaussian shared frailty model. Finally, the adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI), and a p < 0.05 was reported to identify the significant predictors of time to the resumption of post-partum menses.
Results
The median survival time to post-partum menses resumption was 14.6 months. In this study, 51.90% [95% CI: 50.03, 53.76] of post-partum period women had resumed, and the risk of menses resumption was 1.17 times [AHR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.03-1.33] higher among urban resident, 1.14 times [AHR: 1.14; 95% CI: 1.0-1.24] in women who had attended formal education, and 1.63 times [AHR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.4-1.7] higher among women who used hormonal contraceptives. However, the risk of post-partum menses resumption was lower among 7-24 months breastfeeding women by 36% [AHR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.5-0.76], women with child alive by 26% [AHR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.6-0.85], and multiparous women by 27% [AHR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.6-0.80].
Conclusion
Almost half of the participants had resumed post-partum menses, with the median survival timing of menses resumption at 14.5 months. Women residing in urban areas, who attended formal education, and using hormonal contraceptives have a shorter time to resume post-partum menses, whereas a woman with an alive child, breastfeeding practice, and multiple parity has a longer time to resume post-partum menses. Therefore, the healthcare providers and program managers should act on the resumption of post-partum menses through health education and promotion to cultivate the 14 months lag period identified by considering the significant factors.
PMID 36303667 36303667 DOI 10.3389/frph.2022.862693 10.3389/frph.2022.862693
Cite this article
Belay, D. G., & Asratie, M. H. (2022). Time to Resumption of Menses, Spatial Distribution, and Predictors Among Post-partum Period Women in Ethiopia, Evidence From Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016 Data: Gompertz Inverse Gaussian Shared Frailty Model. Frontiers in reproductive health, 4, 862693. https://doi.org/10.3389/frph.2022.862693
Belay DG, Asratie MH. Time to Resumption of Menses, Spatial Distribution, and Predictors Among Post-partum Period Women in Ethiopia, Evidence From Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016 Data: Gompertz Inverse Gaussian Shared Frailty Model. Front Reprod Health. 2022;4:862693. doi:10.3389/frph.2022.862693
Belay, Daniel Gashaneh, and Melaku Hunie Asratie. "Time to Resumption of Menses, Spatial Distribution, and Predictors Among Post-partum Period Women in Ethiopia, Evidence From Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016 Data: Gompertz Inverse Gaussian Shared Frailty Model." Frontiers in reproductive health, vol. 4, 2022, pp. 862693.
The uses of cervical mucus and basal body temperature as indicators of return to fertility postpartum have resulted in high unintended pregnancy rates. In 2013, a study found that when women used urine hormone signs in a postpartum/breastfeeding protocol this resulted in fewer pregnancies. To improve the original protocol's effectiveness, (1) women were to increase the number of days tested with the Clearblue Fertility Monitor, (2) an optional second luteinizing hormone test could be done in the evening, and (3) instructions were given to manage the beginning of the fertile window for the first six cycles postpartum. The purpose of this study was to determine the correct and typical use effectiveness rates to avoid pregnancy in women who used a revised postpartum/breastfeeding protocol. A cohort review of an established data set from 207 postpartum breastfeeding women who used the protocol to avoid pregnancy was completed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Total pregnancy rates that included correct and incorrect use pregnancies were eighteen per one hundred women over twelve cycles of use. For the pregnancies that met a priori criteria, the correct use pregnancy rates were two per one hundred over twelve months and twelve cycles of use and typical use rates were four per one hundred women at twelve cycles of use. The protocol had fewer unplanned pregnancies than the original, however, the cost of the method increased.
To assess patient experiences using a Shared Decision-Making (SDM) Tool for fertility awareness-based methods (FABMs) of family planning. The study employed a prospective crossover design to evaluate impact of the SDM tool compared to usual practice when discussing FABMs with patients. Patients completed preand post-office visit surveys and an online survey six months later. The primary outcomes evaluated the effect of the SDM tool on patient satisfaction and FABM continuity of use rates. There was no significant difference in likelihood of changing family planning methods immediately after the office visit; however, by six months a significantly larger proportion of patients had started or changed FABMs in the experimental group (52%, 34/66) compared to the control group (36%, 24/66) (p = 0.04). Significantly more patients who used the tool and changed their FABM after their visit reported increased satisfaction with their FABM compared to control (50% vs. 17%, p = 0.022). Use of the SDM tool increased persistent use of and satisfaction with chosen FABMs at six months. The novel SDM tool can enhance patients' understanding and facilitate the selection of a more suitable method leading to increased satisfaction.
To assess the effect of randomization to FertilityFriend.com, a mobile computing fertility-tracking app, on fecundability.
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