Several studies indicate that parity and lactation are associated with modest, short-term bone loss, but the long-term effect on osteoporotic fracture risk is uncertain. The authors therefore analyzed data from a population-based case-control study among Swedish postmenopausal women aged 50-81 years between October 1993 and February 1995. Mailed questionnaires and telephone interviews were used to collect data on 1,328 incident cases with hip fracture and 3,312 randomly selected controls. In age-adjusted analyses, the risk of hip fracture among all women was reduced by 10% per child (95% confidence interval (CI): 5, 14). After multivariate adjustment including body mass index as a covariate, the risk reduction was 5% per child (95% CI: 0, 10). Oral contraceptive use modified the association of parity with hip fracture risk. Among never users of oral contraceptives, the risk of hip fracture was reduced by 8% per child (95% CI: 2, 13), whereas among ever users of oral contraceptives, the risk was in the opposite direction, with an increase in risk by 19% per child (95% CI: 0, 41). After parity was considered, there was no association of duration of lactation period with fracture risk. The authors conclude that parity is modestly associated with a reduced hip fracture risk among women who had not used oral contraceptives previously.
parity lactation hip fracture risk postmenopausal women, breastfeeding bone loss long-term fracture risk, number of children hip fracture protection, oral contraceptive use parity fracture risk interaction, Michaelsson parity hip fracture Swedish case-control, postmenopausal osteoporotic fracture reproductive history, lactation duration bone mineral density fracture, population-based case-control hip fracture parity Sweden, multiparity bone protective effect hip fracture, oral contraceptive modification parity fracture association
PMID 11415951 11415951 DOI 10.1093/aje/153.12.1166 10.1093/aje/153.12.1166 Michaëlsson et al. 2001, Michaëlsson 2001
Cite this article
Michaëlsson, K., Baron, J. A., Farahmand, B. Y., & Ljunghall, S. (2001). Influence of parity and lactation on hip fracture risk. American journal of epidemiology, 153(12), 1166-1172. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/153.12.1166
Michaëlsson K, Baron JA, Farahmand BY, Ljunghall S. Influence of parity and lactation on hip fracture risk. Am J Epidemiol. 2001;153(12):1166-1172. doi:10.1093/aje/153.12.1166
Michaëlsson, K., et al. "Influence of parity and lactation on hip fracture risk." American journal of epidemiology, vol. 153, no. 12, 2001, pp. 1166-1172.
Existing fracture risk assessment tools are not designed to predict fracture-associated consequences, possibly contributing to the current undermanagement of fragility fractures worldwide. We aimed to develop a risk assessment tool for predicting the conceptual risk of fragility fractures and its consequences. The study involved 8965 people aged ≥60 years from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study and the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study. Incident fracture was identified from X-ray reports and questionnaires, and death was ascertained though contact with a family member or obituary review. We used a multistate model to quantify the effects of the predictors on the transition risks to an initial and subsequent incident fracture and mortality, accounting for their complex interrelationships, confounding effects, and death as a competing risk. There were 2364 initial fractures, 755 subsequent fractures, and 3300 deaths during a median follow-up of 13 years (interquartile range [IQR] 7-15). The prediction model included sex, age, bone mineral density, history of falls within 12 previous months, prior fracture after the age of 50 years, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, chronic pulmonary diseases, hypertension, and cancer. The model accurately predicted fragility fractures up to 11 years of follow-up and post-fracture mortality up to 9 years, ranging from 7 years after hip fractures to 15 years after non-hip fractures. For example, a 70-year-old woman with a T-score of -1.5 and without other risk factors would have 10% chance of sustaining a fracture and an 8% risk of dying in 5 years. However, after an initial fracture, her risk of sustaining another fracture or dying doubles to 33%, ranging from 26% after a distal to 42% post hip fracture. A robust statistical technique was used to develop a prediction model for individualization of progression to fracture and its consequences, facilitating informed decision making about risk and thus treatment for individuals with different risk profiles.
It is recognized that the trabecular bone score (TBS) provides skeletal information, and frailty measurement is significantly associated with increased risks of adverse health outcomes. Given the suboptimal predictive power in fracture risk assessment tools, we aimed to evaluate the combination of frailty and TBS regarding predictive accuracy for risk of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF). Data from the prospective longitudinal study of CaMos (Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study) were used for this study. TBS values were estimated using lumbar spine (L1 to L4 ) dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images; frailty was evaluated by a frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation. Outcome was time to first incident MOF during the follow-up. We used the Harrell's C-index to compare the model predictive accuracy. The Akaike information criterion, likelihood ratio test, and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were used to compare model performances between the model combining frailty and TBS (subsequently called "FI + TBS"), FI-alone, and TBS-alone models. We included 2730 participants (mean age 69 years; 70% women) for analyses (mean follow-up 7.5 years). There were 243 (8.90%) MOFs observed during follow-up. Participants with MOF had significantly higher FI (0.24 versus 0.20) and lower TBS (1.231 versus 1.285) than those without MOF. FI and TBS were significantly related with MOF risk in the model adjusted for FRAX with bone mineral density (BMD) and other covariates: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.43) for per-SD increase in FI; HR = 1.38 (95% CI 1.21-1.59) for per-SD decrease in TBS; and these associations showed negligible attenuation (HR = 1.24 for per-SD increase in FI, and 1.35 for per-SD decrease in TBS) when combined in the same model. Although the model FI + TBS was a better fit to the data than FI-alone and TBS-alone, only minimal and nonsignificant enhancement of discrimination and NRI were observed in FI + TBS. To conclude, frailty and TBS are significantly and independently related to MOF risk. Larger studies are warranted to determine whether combining frailty and TBS can yield improved predictive accuracy for MOF risk.
We examined the underlying relationship between fracture risk factors and their imminent risk. Results suggested that having past year fracture, worse past year general health, worse past year physical functioning, and lower past year BMD T-score directly predicted higher imminent fracture risk. Past year falls indirectly predicted imminent risk through physical functioning and general health.
This study aimed to examine direct and indirect effects of several factors on imminent (1 year) fracture risk. Data from women age 65 and older from population-based Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study were used. Predictors were identified from study years 5 and 10, and imminent fracture data (1-year fracture) came from years 6 and 11 (year 5 predicts year 6, year 10 predicts year 11). A structural equation model (SEM) was used to test the theoretical construct. General health and physical functioning were measured as latent variables using items from the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) and bone mineral density (BMD) T-score was a latent variable based on observed site-specific BMD data (spine L1-L4, femoral neck, total hip). Observed variables were fractures and falls. Model fit was evaluated using root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA), Tucker Lewis index (TLI), and comparative fit index (CFI). The analysis included 3298 women. Model fit tests showed that the SEM fit the data well; χ2(172) = 1122.10 < .001, RMSEA = .03, TLI = .99, CFI = .99. Results suggested that having past year fracture, worse past year general health, worse past year physical functioning, and lower past year BMD T-score directly predicted higher risk of fracture in the subsequent year (p < .001). Past year falls had a statistically significant but indirect effect on imminent fracture risk through physical functioning and general health (p < .001). We found several direct and indirect pathways that predicted imminent fracture risk in elderly women. Future studies should extend this work by developing risk scoring methods and defining imminent risk thresholds.
Koromani F et al., 2019·Diabetes Care·
Open Access
We aimed to assess whether individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) have increased risk of vertebral fractures (VFs) and to estimate nonvertebral fracture and mortality risk among individuals with both prevalent T2D and VFs. A systematic PubMed search was performed to identify studies that investigated the relationship between T2D and VFs. Cohorts providing individual participant data (IPD) were also included. Estimates from published summary data and IPD cohorts were pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to estimate nonvertebral fracture and mortality risk among individuals with T2D and VFs. Across 15 studies comprising 852,705 men and women, individuals with T2D had lower risk of prevalent (odds ratio [OR] 0.84 [95% CI 0.74-0.95]; I (2) = 0.0%; P (het) = 0.54) but increased risk of incident VFs (OR 1.35 [95% CI 1.27-1.44]; I (2) = 0.6%; P (het) = 0.43). In the IPD cohorts (N = 19,820), risk of nonvertebral fractures was higher in those with both T2D and VFs compared with those without T2D or VFs (hazard ratio [HR] 2.42 [95% CI 1.86-3.15]) or with VFs (HR 1.73 [95% CI 1.32-2.27]) or T2D (HR 1.94 [95% CI 1.46-2.59]) alone. Individuals with both T2D and VFs had increased mortality compared with individuals without T2D and VFs (HR 2.11 [95% CI 1.72-2.59]) or with VFs alone (HR 1.84 [95% CI 1.49-2.28]) and borderline increased compared with individuals with T2D alone (HR 1.23 [95% CI 0.99-1.52]). Based on our findings, individuals with T2D should be systematically assessed for presence of VFs, and, as in individuals without T2D, their presence constitutes an indication to start osteoporosis treatment for the prevention of future fractures.