Fertility Awareness · Technology

Assessment of menstrual health status and evolution through mobile apps for fertility awareness

Symul L, Wac K, Hillard P, Salathé M

Published July 26, 2019 NPJ Digital Medicine, 2(1), 64
DOI 10.1038/s41746-019-0139-4 PMID 31341953 PMC PMC6635432
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RRM Academy Synopsis

Only 24% of estimated ovulations fell on cycle days 14 to 15

Only about 24 out of 100 estimated ovulations fell on cycle days 14 to 15 in a 2019 retrospective study of two fertility awareness apps. Researchers modeled ovulation in 109,161 cycles with a reliable estimate. In those cycles, the median follicular phase lasted 16 days.

Key Findings

  • Of 109,161 cycles with a reliable ovulation estimate (28,453 Sympto, 80,708 Kindara), only about 24% had ovulation on days 14 to 15 of the cycle.
  • In the same cycles, the median follicular phase (ovulation time) was 16 days, and 90% of ovulations occurred between day 10 and day 24.
  • The median luteal phase lasted 12 days in Kindara and 13 days in Sympto. About 35% of cycles had a luteal phase of 12 to 13 days.
  • Among those cycles, about 20% had a luteal phase of 10 days or less, a higher share than the 4.5% reported in a previous epidemiological study.
  • Temperature shifted by about 0.36 °C (0.7 °F) between the mid-follicular phase and the mid-luteal phase, consistent with a much smaller earlier cohort.

Interpretation

The study is a retrospective analysis of de-identified entries that app users logged themselves. The users were self-selected, about 30 years old on average, mostly in Europe or North America. A statistical model (a Hidden Markov Model) estimated ovulation from temperature and mucus entries. The study had no ultrasound or hormone testing. The reliability criteria removed about 40% of Sympto and about 89% of Kindara standard cycles. The authors list a possibly biased population and unverified mucus entries as limits. They did not test whether tracking helps users.

RRM Context

Fertility awareness methods locate ovulation from a woman's own body signs, such as temperature and cervical mucus. Cycle-charting-informed care starts from each woman's own timing. This dataset shows a wide spread in the estimated day of ovulation, which a calendar rule built on day 14 cannot reflect.

Abstract

For most women of reproductive age, assessing menstrual health and fertility typically involves regular visits to a gynecologist or another clinician. While these evaluations provide critical information on an individual's reproductive health status, they typically rely on memory-based self-reports, and the results are rarely, if ever, assessed at the population level. In recent years, mobile apps for menstrual tracking have become very popular, allowing us to evaluate the reliability and tracking frequency of millions of self-observations, thereby providing an unparalleled view, both in detail and scale, on menstrual health and its evolution for large populations. In particular, the primary aim of this study was to describe the tracking behavior of the app users and their overall observation patterns in an effort to understand if they were consistent with previous small-scale medical studies. The secondary aim was to investigate whether their precision allowed the detection and estimation of ovulation timing, which is critical for reproductive and menstrual health. Retrospective self-observation data were acquired from two mobile apps dedicated to the application of the sympto-thermal fertility awareness method, resulting in a dataset of more than 30 million days of observations from over 2.7 million cycles for two hundred thousand users. The analysis of the data showed that up to 40% of the cycles in which users were seeking pregnancy had recordings every single day. With a modeling approach using Hidden Markov Models to describe the collected data and estimate ovulation timing, it was found that follicular phases average duration and range were larger than previously reported, with only 24% of ovulations occurring at cycle days 14 to 15, while the luteal phase duration and range were in line with previous reports, although short luteal phases (10 days or less) were more frequently observed (in up to 20% of cycles). The digital epidemiology approach presented here can help to lead to a better understanding of menstrual health and its connection to women's health overall, which has historically been severely understudied.

Topics

Related research

Fertility Awareness › Technology › Cycle Tracking Apps · Menstrual Cycle › Cycle Biomarkers › Basal Body Temperature · Research Methods › Measurement and Statistics › Data Visualization and Cycle Analytics
Marcel Salathé, Laura Symul, Katarzyna Wac
M Salathé, L Symul, K Wac
PMID 31341953 31341953 DOI 10.1038/s41746-019-0139-4 10.1038/s41746-019-0139-4 Symul et al. 2019, Symul 2019

Cite this article

Symul, L., Wac, K., Hillard, P., & Salathé, M. (2019). Assessment of menstrual health status and evolution through mobile apps for fertility awareness. NPJ digital medicine, 2(1), 64. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-019-0139-4