The 2026 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds

Social Security Board of Trustees

Abstract

Section V.A, demographic assumptions. 'The Trustees assume ultimate total fertility rates of 2.10, 1.75, and 1.40 children per woman for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively.' The intermediate and high-cost ultimate rates are 0.15 and 0.20 lower, respectively, than the ultimate rates assumed in the 2025 report, and the ultimate value is reached in 2050. Stated basis: 'After the baby boom era, the average total fertility rate for years 1966 through 2024 was 1.95 children per woman,' followed by 'There are many factors that indicate that future total fertility rates may be lower than that average.' SSA's own calendar-year series records the total fertility rate reaching 1.60 in 2024, estimated to drop further to 1.59 in 2025.