Time required for conception in 1727 planned pregnancies

Guttmacher AF, Rubin S, Tietze C

Published July 1950 Fertility and Sterility, 1(4), 338-346
DOI 10.1016/s0015-0282(16)30244-8 PMID 15435597
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RRM Academy Synopsis

Nine In Ten Couples Conceived Within A Year, 1950 Study Finds

This 1950 case series followed 1,727 married couples in Baltimore who had just stopped contraception to try for a baby. About 3 out of 10 conceived within the first month. More than 9 out of 10 couples conceived within one year. Fewer than 1 in 10 took longer than a year.

Key Findings

  • 529 of 1,727 couples (30.6%) conceived within the first month after stopping contraception. Another 530 (30.7%) conceived in months 2 or 3. More than 60 per cent conceived within three months.
  • More than 90 per cent of couples conceived within one year. 152 couples fell in the group that took one year or more.
  • The monthly chance of conceiving started near 1 in 4. By the end of the second year it was 0.02 to 0.007, depending on the sterility assumption. 0.02 is one in fifty.
  • Among the 792 first pregnancies, women took longer to conceive (median 2.5 months) than in later pregnancies (median 2.1 months); the difference was significant (chi-square 12.66, p=.014).
  • Looking at those same first pregnancies, duration of marriage was more strongly linked to time-to-conception than the woman's age (chi-square 58.3, p<.00005 versus chi-square 20.0, p=.07).

Interpretation

This is a historical case series from one private medical practice in Baltimore, from 1950. The women were asked about their birth control history at their first pregnancy visit, after they had already conceived. So the study only includes couples who succeeded in conceiving. The case series excludes couples who tried and did not conceive. The patients were married, mostly white, and most husbands held office jobs, so the results may not apply to other groups. The 5%, 10%, and 15% sterility rates used in the monthly estimates were the authors' assumptions. They were not measured counts.

RRM Context

This kind of historical data on chance of pregnancy over time underlies the traditional rule that infertility means one year of trying without success. NaProTechnology and other fertility awareness-based methods still use that mark to decide when to start a full workup. The paper also shows that the chance of conceiving each month drops over time. The declining monthly chance is why cycle charting favors finding a cause early. Creighton Model FertilityCare charts the same way.

Abstract not indexed.

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Related research

PMID 15435597 15435597 DOI 10.1016/s0015-0282(16)30244-8 10.1016/s0015-0282(16)30244-8 Guttmacher et al. 1950, Guttmacher 1950

Cite this article

TIETZE, C., GUTTMACHER, A. F., & RUBIN, S. (1950). Time required for conception in 1727 planned pregnancies. Fertility and Sterility, 1(4), 338-346. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0015-0282(16)30244-8