Colombo, B., & Masarotto, G. (2002). Daily fecundability: first results from a new data base. Demographic Research, 3(461), 39]. https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2000.3.5
Colombo B, Masarotto G. Daily fecundability: first results from a new data base. Demogr Res. 2002;3(461):39]. doi:10.4054/demres.2000.3.5
Colombo, B., and G. Masarotto. "Daily fecundability: first results from a new data base." Demographic research, vol. 3, no. 461, 2000, pp. 39].
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Abstract
This multicenter study has produced a database of 7017 menstrual cycles contributed by 881 women. It provides improved knowledge on length and location of the "fertile window" (identified as of up to 12 days duration) and the patterns and level of daily conception probability. The day of ovulation was identified in each cycle from records of basal body temperature and mucus symptoms. By referencing days of intercourse to the surrogate ovulation markers, estimates of daily fecundability were computed either directly or by the Scwartz model, both for single and multiple acts of intercourse in the fertile window. The relationship between coital pattern and fecundability has been explored. Univariate analysis underlines the significant link with fecundability only of the woman's reproductive history.
Dynamic latent class models provide a flexible framework for studying biologic processes that evolve over time. Motivated by studies of markers of the fertile days of the menstrual cycle, we propose a discrete-time dynamic latent class framework, allowing change points to depend on time, fixed predictors, and random effects. Observed data consist of multivariate categorical indicators, which change dynamically in a flexible manner according to latent class status. Given the flexibility of the framework, which incorporates semi-parametric components using mixtures of betas, identifiability constraints are needed to define the latent classes. Such constraints are most appropriately based on the known biology of the process. The Bayesian method is developed particularly for analyzing mucus symptom data from a study of women using natural family planning.
Time to pregnancy, typically defined as the number of menstrual cycles required to achieve a clinical pregnancy, is widely used as a measure of couple fecundity in epidemiologic studies. Time to pregnancy studies seldom utilize detailed data on the timing and frequency of sexual intercourse and the timing of ovulation. However, the simulated models in this paper illustrate that intercourse behavior can have a large impact on time to pregnancy and, likewise, on fecundability ratios, especially under conditions of low intercourse frequency or low fecundity. Because intercourse patterns in the menstrual cycles may vary substantially among groups, it is important to consider the effects of sexual behavior. Where relevant and feasible, an assessment should be made of the timing and frequency of intercourse relative to ovulation. Day-specific probabilities of pregnancy can be used to account for the effects of intercourse patterns. Depending on the research hypothesis, intercourse patterns may be considered as a potential confounder, mediator, or outcome.
With the collaboration of Italian centres providing services on natural family planning, a prospective study collected data on 2755 menstrual cycles of 193 women. A database was constructed using information on the daily characteristics of cervical mucus and episodes of intercourse. Taking the day of peak mucus as a conventional marker of ovulation, the database identified the length (12 days) and location of a 'window' of potential fertility, the highest level of conception probability being confined to the central five to six days. Univariate analysis provided evidence of the impact on fecundability of the woman's age and the basic infertile pattern of a cycle. Several analytical approaches highlighted the relationship between daily mucus characteristics and levels of fecundability
Intercourse results in a pregnancy essentially only if it occurs during the 6-day fertile interval ending on the day of ovulation. The strong association between timing of intercourse within this interval and the probability of conception typically is attributed to limited sperm and egg life times. A total of 782 women recruited from natural family planning centres in Europe contributed prospective data on 7288 menstrual cycles. Daily records of intercourse, basal body temperature and vaginal discharge of cervical mucus were collected. Probabilities of conception were estimated according to the timing of intercourse relative to ovulation and a 1-4 score of mucus quality. There was a strong increasing trend in the day-specific probabilities of pregnancy with increases in the mucus score. Adjusting for the mucus score, the day-specific probabilities had limited variability across the fertile interval. Changes in mucus quality across the fertile interval predict the observed pattern in the day-specific probabilities of conception. To maximize the likelihood of conception, intercourse should occur on days with optimal mucus quality, as observed in vaginal discharge, regardless of the exact timing relative to ovulation.
Stanford JB et al., 2019·Fertil Steril·Free full text on PubMed Central
To quantify the frequency of use of selected fertility awareness indicators and to assess their influence on fecundability. Web-based prospective cohort study. Not applicable. PATIENT(S): Female pregnancy planners, aged 21-45 years, attempting conception for ≤6 cycles at study entry. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): We ascertained time to pregnancy, in menstrual cycles, with bimonthly questionnaires. We estimated adjusted fecundability ratios (FRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) using proportional probabilities models, controlling for age, income, education, smoking, intercourse frequency, and other lifestyle and reproductive factors. RESULT(S): A total of 5,688 women were analyzed, with a mean age of 29.9 years and mean time trying of 2.1 cycles at baseline; 30% had ever been pregnant. At baseline, 75% were using one or more fertility indicators (counting days or charting menstrual cycles [71%], measuring basal body temperature [BBT, 21%], monitoring cervical fluid [39%], using urine LH tests [32%], or feeling for changes in position of the cervix [12%]). Women using any fertility indicator at baseline had higher subsequent fecundability (adjusted FR 1.25, 95% CI 1.16-1.35) than those not using any fertility indicators. For each individual indicator, adjusted FRs ranged from 1.28-1.36, where 1.00 would indicate no relation with fecundability. The adjusted FR for women using a combination of charting days, cervical fluid, and urine LH was 1.48 (95% CI 1.31-1.67) relative to women using no fertility indicators. CONCLUSION(S): In a North American preconception cohort study, use of fertility indicators indicating the fertile window was common, and was associated with greater fecundability.
Favaro C et al., 2021·J Womens Health (Larchmt)·Free full text on PubMed Central
Time to pregnancy (TTP) is a biomarker of fecundability and has been associated with behavioral and environmental characteristics; however, these associations have not been examined in a large population-based sample of application (app) users. This observational study followed 5,376 women with an age range of 18 to 45 years who used an app to identify their fertile window. We included women who started trying to conceive between September 30, 2017 and August 31, 2018. TTP was calculated as the number of menstrual cycles from when the user switched to "Plan" mode up to and including the cycle in which they logged a positive pregnancy test. We examined associations with several characteristics, including age, gravidity, body mass index, cycle length and cycle length variation, frequency of sexual intercourse, and temperature measuring frequency. Discrete time fecundability models were used to estimate fecundability odds ratios. For the complete cohort the 6-cycle and 12-cycle cumulative pregnancy probabilities were found to be 61% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 59-62) and 74% (95% CI: 73-76), respectively. The median TTP was four cycles. The highest fecundability was associated with an age of less than 35 years, with cycle length variation <5 days and logging sexual intercourse on at least 20% of days added (the proportion of days in which intercourse was logged) (11.5% [n = 613] of entire sample). This group achieved a 6and 12-cycle cumulative pregnancy probability of 88% (95% CI: 85-91) and 95% (95% CI: 94-97), respectively, and a TTP of 2 cycles. Natural Cycles was an effective method of identifying the fertile window and a noninvasive educational option for women planning a pregnancy. Women under age 35 with regular cycles showed a high pregnancy rate.
The objective of the present paper is to review the main results of recent European cycle databases on ovulation detection and determination of the fertile window performed by the women themselves. The ongoing German Long-term Cycle Database currently comprises 32788 prospectively collected cycle charts of 1551 women, the I European Cycle Database (10 countries) 1328 women/19048 cycles, the II European Cycle Database (six countries) 782 women/6724 cycles, and the World Health Organization Database (one European country) 234 women/2808 cycles. The women record cycle parameters (cervical mucus changes, temperature rise, etc.), family planning intention and sexual behavior. With the symptothermal method of natural family planning it has become possible to determine the fertile window in order to avoid pregnancy with a method effectiveness of 0.3%. According to a small sub-study, the ovulation time observed by the women themselves correlates closely with ovulation detected by ultrasound and measurement of luteinizing hormone (correlation within 1 day in 89% of the 62 cycles). Fertility awareness methods can be integrated into the management of sub-fertility. They seem to shorten the time to pregnancy. Self-observation of the fertile window puts women into a position to develop a high level of reproductive competence that could be used much more in different areas than is currently the case.
Pedersen ES et al., 2024·Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol·Free full text on PubMed Central
The use of fertility indicators to predict ovulation has largely been studied for contraceptive purposes, while less so as fertility-promoting tools. To investigate the association between fertility indicators and fecundability in Danish women trying to conceive. Web-based preconception cohort study. We analysed data from 11,328 females aged 18-49 years trying to conceive without fertility treatment for ≤6 menstrual cycles, from the Danish SnartGravid.dk and SnartForældre.dk cohorts (2007-2023). Participants reported the use of fertility indicators (counting days since the last menstrual period, cervical fluid monitoring, urinary ovulation testing, feeling ovulation, using a smartphone fertility app and measuring basal body temperature [BBT]). Time to pregnancy was measured in menstrual cycles ascertained by self-reported pregnancy status. We estimated fecundability ratios (FR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using proportional probabilities regression models adjusted for age, socio-economic position, health indicators, reproductive history and gynaecological factors. Fertility indicators were used by 63.3% of participants at study entry. Counting days was the most common (46.9%), while measuring BBT was the least (3.0%). Other indicators ranged from 17.0% to 23.6%, with 69.7% using more than one indicator. Compared with non-use, use of any fertility indicator was associated with greater fecundability (adjusted FR 1.14, 95% CI 1.08, 1.19). Cervical fluid monitoring showed the strongest association (aFR 1.46, 95% CI 1.03, 2.07), followed by urinary ovulation testing (aFR 1.35, 95% CI 1.16, 1.58) and counting days (aFR 1.18, 95% CI 1.09, 1.29). Feeling ovulation and fertility apps were modestly associated with fecundability, while measuring BBT was not associated. Sensitivity analysis restricting to ≤2 cycles of attempt time and two cycles of follow-up showed an aFR for any indicator use of 1.21 (95% CI 1.13, 1.31). In this Danish preconception cohort, use of fertility indicators was associated with a higher fecundability, varying by type of indicator.
Fertility Awareness › Biomarkers › Basal Body Temperature · Menstrual Cycle › Cycle Biomarkers › Basal Body Temperature
Bernardo Colombo
B Colombo
PMID 12178154 12178154 DOI 10.4054/demres.2000.3.5 10.4054/demres.2000.3.5 Colombo et al. 2002, Colombo 2002
Cite this article
Colombo, B., & Masarotto, G. (2002). Daily fecundability: first results from a new data base. Demographic Research, 3(461), 39]. https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2000.3.5
Colombo B, Masarotto G. Daily fecundability: first results from a new data base. Demogr Res. 2002;3(461):39]. doi:10.4054/demres.2000.3.5
Colombo, B., and G. Masarotto. "Daily fecundability: first results from a new data base." Demographic research, vol. 3, no. 461, 2000, pp. 39].
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