There are many mobile phone apps aimed at helping women map their ovulation and menstrual cycles and facilitating successful conception (or avoiding pregnancy). These apps usually ask users to input various biological features and have accumulated the menstrual cycle data of a vast number of women.
Objective
The purpose of our study was to clarify how the data obtained from a self-tracking health app for female mobile phone users can be used to improve the accuracy of prediction of the date of next ovulation.
Methods
Using the data of 7043 women who had reliable menstrual and ovulation records out of 8,000,000 users of a mobile phone app of a health care service, we analyzed the relationship between the menstrual cycle length, follicular phase length, and luteal phase length. Then we fitted a linear function to the relationship between the length of the menstrual cycle and timing of ovulation and compared it with the existing calendar-based methods.
Results
The correlation between the length of the menstrual cycle and the length of the follicular phase was stronger than the correlation between the length of the menstrual cycle and the length of the luteal phase, and there was a positive correlation between the lengths of past and future menstrual cycles. A strong positive correlation was also found between the mean length of past cycles and the length of the follicular phase. The correlation between the mean cycle length and the luteal phase length was also statistically significant. In most of the subjects, our method (ie, the calendar-based method based on the optimized function) outperformed the Ogino method of predicting the next ovulation date. Our method also outperformed the ovulation date prediction method that assumes the middle day of a mean menstrual cycle as the date of the next ovulation.
Conclusions
The large number of subjects allowed us to capture the relationships between the lengths of the menstrual cycle, follicular phase, and luteal phase in more detail than previous studies. We then demonstrated how the present calendar methods could be improved by the better grouping of women. This study suggested that even without integrating various biological metrics, the dataset collected by a self-tracking app can be used to develop formulas that predict the ovulation day when the data are aggregated. Because the method that we developed requires data only on the first day of menstruation, it would be the best option for couples during the early stages of their attempt to have a baby or for those who want to avoid the cost associated with other methods. Moreover, the result will be the baseline for more advanced methods that integrate other biological metrics.
Sohda Suzuki Igari menstrual cycle ovulation timing self-tracking health app analysis, mobile health app ovulation prediction basal body temperature cycle length data, temperature shift timing ovulation day estimation app algorithm 7700 cycles analyzed, fertile window calculation self-tracking data menstrual cycle variability patterns, Journal Medical Internet Research 2017 menstrual cycle app ovulation protocol, smartphone app user-generated data menstrual cycle timing ovulation retrospective, basal body temperature BBT shift day relative LH surge cycle phase duration, self-tracking health app fertility awareness big data menstrual patterns analysis, ovulation day prediction cycle length variation follicular phase variability app data, digital health menstrual cycle tracking ovulation timing population-level analysis
PMID 29180346 29180346 DOI 10.2196/jmir.7468 10.2196/jmir.7468
Cite this article
Sohda, S., Suzuki, K., & Igari, I. (2017). Relationship Between the Menstrual Cycle and Timing of Ovulation Revealed by New Protocols: Analysis of Data from a Self-Tracking Health App. Journal of medical Internet research, 19(11), e391. https://doi.org/10.2196/jmir.7468
Sohda S, Suzuki K, Igari I. Relationship Between the Menstrual Cycle and Timing of Ovulation Revealed by New Protocols: Analysis of Data from a Self-Tracking Health App. J Med Internet Res. 2017;19(11):e391. doi:10.2196/jmir.7468
Sohda, Satoshi, et al. "Relationship Between the Menstrual Cycle and Timing of Ovulation Revealed by New Protocols: Analysis of Data from a Self-Tracking Health App." Journal of medical Internet research, vol. 19, no. 11, 2017, pp. e391.
Zhu TY et al., 2021·Journal of medical Internet research
As a daily point measurement, basal body temperature (BBT) might not be able to capture the temperature shift in the menstrual cycle because a single temperature measurement is present on the sliding scale of the circadian rhythm. Wrist skin temperature measured continuously during sleep has the potential to overcome this limitation. This study compares the diagnostic accuracy of these two temperatures for detecting ovulation and to investigate the correlation and agreement between these two temperatures in describing thermal changes in menstrual cycles. This prospective study included 193 cycles (170 ovulatory and 23 anovulatory) collected from 57 healthy women. Participants wore a wearable device (Ava Fertility Tracker bracelet 2.0) that continuously measured the wrist skin temperature during sleep. Daily BBT was measured orally and immediately upon waking up using a computerized fertility tracker with a digital thermometer (Lady-Comp). An at-home luteinizing hormone test was used as the reference standard for ovulation. The diagnostic accuracy of using at least one temperature shift detected by the two temperatures in detecting ovulation was evaluated. For ovulatory cycles, repeated measures correlation was used to examine the correlation between the two temperatures, and mixed effect models were used to determine the agreement between the two temperature curves at different menstrual phases. Wrist skin temperature was more sensitive than BBT (sensitivity 0.62 vs 0.23; P<.001) and had a higher true-positive rate (54.9% vs 20.2%) for detecting ovulation; however, it also had a higher false-positive rate (8.8% vs 3.6%), resulting in lower specificity (0.26 vs 0.70; P=.002). The probability that ovulation occurred when at least one temperature shift was detected was 86.2% for wrist skin temperature and 84.8% for BBT. Both temperatures had low negative predictive values (8.8% for wrist skin temperature and 10.9% for BBT). Significant positive correlation between the two temperatures was only found in the follicular phase (rmcorr correlation coefficient=0.294; P=.001). Both temperatures increased during the postovulatory phase with a greater increase in the wrist skin temperature (range 0.50 °C vs 0.20 °C). During the menstrual phase, the wrist skin temperature exhibited a greater and more rapid decrease (from 36.13 °C to 35.80 °C) than BBT (from 36.31 °C to 36.27 °C). During the preovulatory phase, there were minimal changes in both temperatures and small variations in the estimated daily difference between the two temperatures, indicating an agreement between the two curves. For women interested in maximizing the chances of pregnancy, wrist skin temperature continuously measured during sleep is more sensitive than BBT for detecting ovulation. The difference in the diagnostic accuracy of these methods was likely attributed to the greater temperature increase in the postovulatory phase and greater temperature decrease during the menstrual phase for the wrist skin temperatures.
Grieger JA et al., 2020·Journal of medical Internet research
There is increasing information characterizing menstrual cycle length in women, but less information is available on the potential differences across lifestyle variables. This study aimed to describe differences in menstrual cycle length, variability, and menstrual phase across women of different ages and BMI among a global cohort of Flo app users. We have also reported on demographic and lifestyle characteristics across median cycle lengths. The analysis was run based on the aggregated anonymized dataset from a menstrual cycle tracker and ovulation calendar that covers all phases of the reproductive cycle. Self-reported information is documented, including demographics, menstrual flow and cycle length, ovulation information, and reproductive health and diseases. Data from women aged ≥18 years and who had logged at least three cycles (ie, 2 completed cycles and 1 current cycle) in the Flo app were included (1,579,819 women). Of the 1.5 million users, approximately half (638,683/1,579,819, 40.42%) were aged between 18 and 24 years. Just over half of those reporting BMIs were in the normal range (18.5-24.9 kg/m2; 202,420/356,598, 56.76%) and one-third were overweight or obese (>25 kg/m2; 120,983/356,598, 33.93%). A total of 16.32% (257,889/1,579,819) of women had a 28-day median cycle length. There was a higher percentage of women aged ≥40 years who had a 27-day median cycle length than those aged between 18 and 24 years (22,294/120,612, 18.48% vs 60,870/637,601, 9.55%), but a lower percentage with a 29-day median cycle length (10,572/120,612, 8.77% vs 79,626/637,601, 12.49%). There were a higher number of cycles with short luteal phases in younger women, whereas women aged ≥40 years had a higher number of cycles with longer luteal phases. Median menstrual cycle length and the length of the follicular and luteal phases were not remarkably different with increasing BMI, except for the heaviest women at a BMI of ≥50 kg/m2. On a global scale, we have provided extensive evidence on the characteristics of women and their menstrual cycle length and patterns across different age and BMI groups. This information is necessary to support updates of current clinical guidelines around menstrual cycle length and patterns for clinical use in fertility programs.
Previous research examining physiological changes across the menstrual cycle has considered biological responses to shifting hormones in isolation. Clinical studies, for example, have shown that women's nightly basal body temperature increases from 0.28 to 0.56 ˚C following postovulation progesterone production. Women's resting pulse rate, respiratory rate, and heart rate variability (HRV) are similarly elevated in the luteal phase, whereas skin perfusion decreases significantly following the fertile window's closing. Past research probed only 1 or 2 of these physiological features in a given study, requiring participants to come to a laboratory or hospital clinic multiple times throughout their cycle. Although initially designed for recreational purposes, wearable technology could enable more ambulatory studies of physiological changes across the menstrual cycle. Early research suggests that wearables can detect phase-based shifts in pulse rate and wrist skin temperature (WST). To date, previous work has studied these features separately, with the ability of wearables to accurately pinpoint the fertile window using multiple physiological parameters simultaneously yet unknown. In this study, we probed what phase-based differences a wearable bracelet could detect in users' WST, heart rate, HRV, respiratory rate, and skin perfusion. Drawing on insight from artificial intelligence and machine learning, we then sought to develop an algorithm that could identify the fertile window in real time. We conducted a prospective longitudinal study, recruiting 237 conception-seeking Swiss women. Participants wore the Ava bracelet (Ava AG) nightly while sleeping for up to a year or until they became pregnant. In addition to syncing the device to the corresponding smartphone app daily, women also completed an electronic diary about their activities in the past 24 hours. Finally, women took a urinary luteinizing hormone test at several points in a given cycle to determine the close of the fertile window. We assessed phase-based changes in physiological parameters using cross-classified mixed-effects models with random intercepts and random slopes. We then trained a machine learning algorithm to recognize the fertile window. We have demonstrated that wearable technology can detect significant, concurrent phase-based shifts in WST, heart rate, and respiratory rate (all P<.001). HRV and skin perfusion similarly varied across the menstrual cycle (all P<.05), although these effects only trended toward significance following a Bonferroni correction to maintain a family-wise alpha level. Our findings were robust to daily, individual, and cycle-level covariates. Furthermore, we developed a machine learning algorithm that can detect the fertile window with 90% accuracy (95% CI 0.89 to 0.92). Our contributions highlight the impact of artificial intelligence and machine learning's integration into health care. By monitoring numerous physiological parameters simultaneously, wearable technology uniquely improves upon retrospective methods for fertility awareness and enables the first real-time predictive model of ovulation.