Testing a theoretical model of imminent fracture risk in elderly women: an observational cohort analysis of the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study

Combining Frailty and Trabecular Bone Score Did Not Improve Predictive Accuracy in Risk of Major Osteoporotic Fractures

Guowei Li et al., 2020·J Bone Miner Res

It is recognized that the trabecular bone score (TBS) provides skeletal information, and frailty measurement is significantly associated with increased risks of adverse health outcomes. Given the suboptimal predictive power in fracture risk assessment tools, we aimed to evaluate the combination of frailty and TBS regarding predictive accuracy for risk of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF). Data from the prospective longitudinal study of CaMos (Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study) were used for this study. TBS values were estimated using lumbar spine (L1 to L4 ) dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images; frailty was evaluated by a frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation. Outcome was time to first incident MOF during the follow-up. We used the Harrell's C-index to compare the model predictive accuracy. The Akaike information criterion, likelihood ratio test, and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were used to compare model performances between the model combining frailty and TBS (subsequently called "FI + TBS"), FI-alone, and TBS-alone models. We included 2730 participants (mean age 69 years; 70% women) for analyses (mean follow-up 7.5 years). There were 243 (8.90%) MOFs observed during follow-up. Participants with MOF had significantly higher FI (0.24 versus 0.20) and lower TBS (1.231 versus 1.285) than those without MOF. FI and TBS were significantly related with MOF risk in the model adjusted for FRAX with bone mineral density (BMD) hazard ratio (HR) = 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.43) for per-SD increase in FI; HR = 1.38 (95% CI 1.21-1.59) for per-SD decrease in TBS; and these associations showed negligible attenuation (HR = 1.24 for per-SD increase in FI, and 1.35 for per-SD decrease in TBS) when combined in the same model. Although the model FI + TBS was a better fit to the data than FI-alone and TBS-alone, only minimal and nonsignificant enhancement of discrimination and NRI were observed in FI + TBS. To conclude, frailty and TBS are significantly and independently related to MOF risk. Larger studies are warranted to determine whether combining frailty and TBS can yield improved predictive accuracy for MOF risk.

Where's the break? Critique of radiographic vertebral fracture diagnostic methods

J C Prior et al., 2021·Osteoporos Int

Simulated effects of early menopausal bone mineral density preservation on long-term fracture risk: a feasibility study

E O Billington et al., 2021·Osteoporos Int

Prevention of early menopausal bone loss may reduce the future burden of osteoporosis. In this modelling exercise, an osteoporosis prevention strategy involving 5-year infusions of zoledronic acid, beginning early in menopause, reduced long-term fracture risk and the proportion of aging women with femoral neck densitometric osteoporosis. This strategy warrants further evaluation. Preventing early menopausal bone loss may substantially reduce the future burden of osteoporosis. We modelled the effects of infrequent zoledronic acid infusions on long-term fracture risk. Data from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos) were used to determine the expected natural history of femoral neck areal bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk (using FRAX®) from ages 50-80 for women with no antiresorptive drug exposures. We modelled the effects of three infusions of zoledronic acid (at ages 50, 55, 60) on long-term fracture risk, assuming this intervention would preserve BMD until age 65 years, followed by losses mirroring early menopausal BMD loss. At age 65, untreated women and zoledronic acid recipients had expected mean (SD) femoral neck T-scores of - 1.5(1.0) and - 0.8(1.0), 10-year major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) risks of 9.8%(5.0) and 8.0%(3.7) and hip fracture risks of 1.7%(2.4) and 0.8%(1.2), respectively. At age 80, untreated women and zoledronic acid recipients had expected femoral neck T-scores of - 1.9(0.9) and - 1.4(0.9), MOF risks of 17.9%(8.2) and 14.9%(6.4) and hip fracture risks of 6.3%(6.2) and 4.4%(4.5), respectively. The expected proportion of women with femoral neck T-score ≤ - 2.5 was 14.9% for untreated women and 3.8% for zoledronic acid recipients at age 65, increasing to 28.1% and 12.0%, respectively, at age 80. Numbers-needed-to-treat to prevent one case of densitometric osteoporosis were 9 at age 65 and 5 at age 80. Infrequent infusions of zoledronic acid, initiated early in menopause, are expected to reduce long-term fracture risk and result in a substantial reduction in the proportion of women with densitometric osteoporosis after age 65.

Longitudinal assessment of health-related quality of life in osteoporosis: data from the population-based Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study

W M Hopman et al., 2019·Osteoporos Int

Little is known about the association between health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and osteoporosis in the absence of fracture, and how HRQOL may change over time. This study provides evidence of substantially reduced HRQOL in women and men with self-reported and/or BMD-confirmed osteoporosis, even in the absence of fragility fracture. Fragility fractures have a detrimental effect on the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of those with osteoporosis. Less is known about the association between HRQOL and osteoporosis in the absence of fracture. Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study participants completed the SF-36, a detailed health questionnaire and measures of bone mineral density (BMD) at baseline and follow-up. We report the results of participants ≥ 50 years with 10-year follow-up. Self-reported osteoporosis at baseline and BMD-based osteoporosis at follow-up were ascertained. Multivariable linear regression models were developed for baseline SF-36 domains, component summaries, and change over time, adjusting for relevant baseline information. Baseline data were available for 5266 women and 2112 men. Women in the osteoporosis group had substantially lower SF-36 baseline scores, particularly in the physically oriented domains, than those without osteoporosis. A similar but attenuated pattern was evident for the men. After 10-year follow-up (2797 women and 1023 men), most domain scores dropped for women and men regardless of osteoporosis status, with the exception of mentally-oriented ones. In general, a fragility fracture was associated with lower SF-36 scores and larger declines over time. This study provides evidence of substantially reduced HRQOL in women and men with self-reported and/or BMD-confirmed osteoporosis, even in the absence of fragility fracture. HRQOL should be thoroughly investigated even prior to fracture, to develop appropriate interventions for all stages of the disease.